This is one of those ‘worth watching, but don’t get concerned yet’ type of situations. Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall across the coast of Nicaragua today bringing heavy rain, wind gusts up to 185mph, and storm surge up to 20+ feet.
You really have to keep those people in your heart, because the poor folks in Nicaragua and Honduras, too, are just getting pounded from Eta.
But that is not the storm intensity that is forecast to make it into the Gulf of Mexico.
Thankfully.
From the NHC
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST
LOCATION…13.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB…27.76 INCHES
OUTLOOK
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening should occur as the center moves inland tonight and Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
Model data
The simple graphic I made the other day with cold front trajectory is still a good starting point for figuring out what will happen with Etz with respect to the northenr Gulf coast
The farther north the cold fronts pass through the United States, the more likely Eta is to get close to the northern Gulf coast.
The farther south the cold fronts pass through hte United States the more likely those fronts are to pick up Eta and take it our to seas before bothering folks along the northern Gulf Coast.
So far the model data coming in shows the fronts not doing as good of a job pushing south, and thus Eta is showing a better chance of making it farther north.
Model guidance has come into much better agreement today after the Hurricane Hunters spent some time flying through the storm gathering readings. Recall yesterday how the spaghetti plots were still all over the place, while today these are a bit more centered on a general track
The model ensemble guidance shows a similar story of a zigzagging storm.
There are going to be a few influences at play during the next 96 hours as it pushes west, then gets pulled back east, and then – perhaps – gets shoved back west again.
Between a ridge to the northeast, a trough tot he west and another ridge building into the region – there will be a lot of moving parts.
Intensity guidance, at this point, is moot. Given the fact that it will move over land, weaken, perhaps lose its tropical characteristics, perhaps lose its low-level center, and then re-emerge in the Caribbean I don’t put a lot of faith in the intensity guidance.
That said, here it is…
Take it for what it is worth. Not much.
For right now, I’m going to side with the NHC forecast of a Tropical Storm as it approaches the Gulf.
Twitter Chatter
For those who are weather enthusiasts, Twitter is a great place to be (some days). There are many scientists that use the platform to discuss model data, potential outcomes, and impacts.
Here are some examples of some discussion about Eta and where it may go next…
Some really impressive radar shots from the @53rdWRS last night in #Eta‘s pinhole eye.
Cannot thank enough the efforts of the crew able to sample Eta last night at a critical time in between several missions with mechanical issues. Thank you 🙏 https://t.co/8dLkYAwFJK
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) November 3, 2020
While the latest models do bring #Eta close to Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico, it won’t be anywhere near as strong. Disregard intensity models that have it as a hurricane since they don’t show any weakening over Central America which is certainly going to happen. #scwx #ncwx pic.twitter.com/KdmzMxdKaS
— Ed Piotrowski (@EdPiotrowski) November 3, 2020
Even though #Eta is moving inland and is set to bring a flood disaster to Central America, we don’t stop watching it here stateside.
In fact, it could become an “us problem” as its remnants try to regenerate over the Caribbean and Gulf into early next week.
Yes, really. 2020. pic.twitter.com/a4nng3ecWB
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) November 3, 2020
Could #Eta make landfall three times? Forecast models are consistently trending that way #HurricaneEta pic.twitter.com/H1TfpfTrXu
— Stephanie Walker (@StephWVTM13) November 3, 2020
