Hurricane Season starts today, Invest91L in the Gulf with 50% chance of development

Welcome to Hurricane Season. Right on schedule, the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on an area of interest that is moving through the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Model guidance still takes this area of interest into the Mexican coast with no impact of the Gulf Coast.

From the NHC:

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2019 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
————————————————————-
Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh
Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh
Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor
Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh
Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo
Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn
Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh
Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van
Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee
Karen KAIR-ren

One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The
next named storm that forms this season will be Barry.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi