Well, that didn’t take long did it? After a handful of models starting to come into agreement that something may develop off the east coast or in the Gulf, the scare-tactic posts have begun.
In general, this post from yesterday still stands:
However, we do have some new data to look at that may mean better chances for rain further west.
Is it gunna be bad, Nick?
In general, I never answer this question. Because I don’t know what you consider bad. People that lived through Katrina probably have a different version of “bad” versus someone who just moved to Mississippi. The term “bad” is so subjective that if I say “yes” or “no” everyone is going to have a different expectation of what that means.
A Katrina survivor hears “bad” and may think three weeks with no water.
A new Mississippi resident hears “bad” and may think windy and rainy.
So, I can’t answer that question. What I can do is show you some information and allow you to decide if you think it will be bad for you.
New info & model data
The graphic above is from the 12z GFS computer weather model. It shows an area of low pressure sagging back to the southwest from the Carolinas into the Gulf of Mexico between tomorrow and Friday night. The good news is that it doesn’t keep it there long, shortly after the end of this loop is move is back over land, giving the area of low pressure very little time to develop over the open waters.
According to the GFS, as the sub-tropical ridge over the Gulf now moves west, it will open the door for this area of low pressure to slide south along the eastern rim of the ridge.
After it slides south, the Bermuda High to the east then moves in to push it back north over land.
Because we don’t know how strong either ridge will be yet, and the area of low pressure hasn’t even formed yet, specifics about what will happen are really, really difficult to predict.
The European computer weather model moves the area of low pressure farther out to sea.
This is likely due to a difference – in this models depiction – of the relative strengths of the ridges of high pressure that are out there.
The image above is pulled from next Friday evening. The Euro model also pulls the area of low pressure south across the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida panhandle and into the Gulf. Then, the model flips it right back around after a day over the open waters and moves it right back ashore.
Either way you slice it the water temperatures in the Gulf are pretty warm.
Whether it is hurricane weather or severe weather, weather depends on whether these temps are high pic.twitter.com/wy78FUvErP
— Max Three (@WDAMMaxThree) July 5, 2019
So if anything does get down over the open waters, it will have plenty of warm water – or food, as I call it – for the system to use.
Early estimates of timeline & impacts
Based on the limited amount of model data, it is difficult to lay down anything concrete. However, we are able to cast a ‘wide net’ that may help some of you prepare a bit better.
Estimated timeline of lifespan
The National Hurricane Center will likely start to talk about this thing on Monday. And development will be possible starting as early as Wednesday night and as late as Saturday night. Whatever develops should then move out of the area by Monday morning.
Estimated impacts
Rainfall from the area of low pressure could begin as early as Wednesday for parts of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. And linger as late as Monday for some of the same areas.
So far model data shows this to be more of a rain-maker than a wind-producer. Gusty wind will be possible, of course, but so far, there hasn’t been any data to support anything catastrophic.
Also, depending on how far out into the Gulf the center gets, there may be some surge-related issues and coastal flooding… But pinpointing or even estimating that threat at this time isn’t possible.
REMINDER:
All of this could change. Quickly.
So please keep tabs on the forecast in the coming days.
What should I do right now to prepare?
Not much. Check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit, make sure you’re stocked up on supplies. That might sound silly given this isn’t looking menacing right now, but even if this is just a rain-maker with some gusty wind, that can still knock down trees and knock out power.
Since it is a holiday weekend, this might be a good time to clear shrubs and trees away from your house, prune some of the larger trees, and make sure you have the place to put your lawn furniture cleared out (so if you have to put it up, you can do it easily).
This wouldn’t be a bad time to talk to your insurance agent, either. Double check your coverage and make certain you know what is protected, and what isn’t.
