Good morning everyone and happy Tuesday! For the weather this week, we are looking at a notable amount of rain. This rain / cloud cover should also allow for temperatures to remain closer to average, topping out in the low to mid 90s most afternoons.
Looking at the short term forecast, for the next couple of days, weak upper-level troughing in between two ridges will lead to increased shower activity during the afternoon.
This upper-level troughing will provide a bit of extra forcing or “push” for showers and thunderstorms to form. In addition to this, there will be consistent southerly flow at the surface, keeping precipitable water values around 0.25″ above average for the rest of the week. As a reminder, precipitable water is a measure of the amount of water within a vertical column in the atmosphere. Generally higher values mean more humid weather with a greater chance for heavier rainfall from storms and showers.
With these two ingredients in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely to be more numerous for the next couple of days as well as lead to a decent amount of accumulation.
Ensemble models are showing at least 1.5″ of widespread precipitation across the area for the next 7 days. As always with summertime convection, certain locations could see localized higher amounts if they get caught under a more severe storm with heavier rainfall.
As I began to allude to earlier, with the rain providing an increase in cloud cover and leading to a cool down during any precipitation, these leads to temperatures being right around average for the next week.
As we move into the end of next week and into the weekend, the upper-level ridge currently over the four corners region will move closer to our area and be centered closer to Oklahoma and Kansas. For our area, this means a reduction in rain chances, but there will still be chances for rainfall as the center of the ridge wont be directly over us.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 70-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and storms early. Lows in the low 70s. Chance of rain 30-percent. Wind calm.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90. Wind south at 5mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows in the low 70s. Wind calm.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low 70s. Wind calm.
Friday
Sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low 70s. Wind calm.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Wind calm.
Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the low 90s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low 70s.
Monday
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s.
