Invest 96L continues to show robust convection near a quasi-localized area of lower pressure. The NH gives this area an 80-percent chance of development by early next week.
From the NHC
The NHC says there is a reasonable amount of confidence that this forms into a tropical system.
Shower activity continues to become better organized in association with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves into the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
If this one gets a name it would be Eta.
Again, Nick? We can’t take it anymore!
I know we all feel like the Red and Green Power Ranger. While I know not everyone has received damage from storms this summer, it seems like a never-ending train of “almosts” as the very least.
This one isn’t likely to be an almost. Thankfully.
So far, it looks like this one is going to continue to ride the trade winds toward Central America and plow into Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
The intensity guidance may be running a bit “hot” since the system hasn’t formed yet.
That said, in 2020 so far I think more often than not systems have out-performed early model guidance for intensity.
The Bottom Line
This isn’t a ‘real’ threat to the Gulf Coast at this point. The problem becomes that there is a chance that part of this thing may wind up getting spun a bit further north. Then we have to play the ‘when does the next cold front arrive’ game.
Latest model guidance shows a front pushing well south into the Gulf by next week. The yellow arrows on the data map show the most likely direction for Invest 96L to go.
