Good morning everyone, I hope you were able to enjoy your 4th of July this year! Expect skies to remain mostly sunny throughout the day with a small chance of thunderstorms and showers later this afternoon/evening. Temperatures will approach 90F today with dew points in the mid 70s, causing Heat Index values to reach 100F; do your best to stay cool and hydrated during the heat today!
An extensive ridge is present at the 500mb level (roughly three and a half miles above the ground) across the CONUS, and is expected to persist until around Sunday when it retrogrades farther west. This will allow for above average temperatures for much of the Southeast over the next several days along with plenty of moisture to induce afternoon thunderstorm development, otherwise no significant weather is expected until possibly Sunday.
As the ridge begins to shift west, winds at the 500mb level will become northerly near the end of this week, allowing for any energy that has traversed around the ridge to push into the Southeast. These ‘pieces’ of energy can produce clusters of storms under the right conditions, stronger than your typical summertime pop-up thunderstorm, and can evolve into more dangerous complexes called Mesoscale Convective Systems (abbreviated as MCS).
They can be difficult to forecast even the day before they occur, let alone several days in advance; however, some weather models are hinting at a piece of energy entering the region during the weekend. Confidence is currently low that SE MS / SW AL will be impacted by severe weather, but expect to hear an update on the situation this Friday in case things change.
Overall, the current weather pattern will lead to a quiet week with upper 80s and lower 90s most days. Humidity will remain high with the possibility for afternoon thunderstorm development, although generally rainfall coverage will be minimal.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat Index values approaching 100F.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation 10-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values approaching 100F.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values approaching 100F.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
