We are still looking at a chance for showers, storms and the potential for severe weather today. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal to Slight Risk across the area.
Aside from the threat for storms, most of the area today it will be quite warm. And that warmth will be the fuel needed for the storms to develop.
But, as many of you guys know, it takes more than just warm air for storms to turn severe. We need to have a whole host of other atmospheric parameters in place – some closer to the ground and others way up in the sky.
In this particular situation, the data suggests that we may not have all the parameters lined up in the correct way to allow widespread severe weather to develop.
Instead, this looks like a very conditional event, where if a sto develops in the right place, at the right time, it may be able to tap into some extra ‘umph’ to allow it to strengthen past severe limits.
And this front is coming with a reasonably stout temperature change, too. So we will go from 80s for high back down to 20s for lows and we don’t even have to earn it with some widespread severe weather out real in the area.
And just a brief note on the colder air…
Some of you.may have an opportunity to se.some very cold rain Sunday night. Model guidance is also showing a chance for temperatures to run in the low 40s by Sunday night with a little band of light rain that will roll through.
For those wondering if this may fall as snow, the answer is mostly likely not. I suppose it isn’t impossible to see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain, but the temperatures will be much too warm (despite how much cooler it will be) for snow near the surface.
But, in all honesty, it’ll be close for folks living near and north of I-20. For those closer to the Gulf Coast, it’ll be just a cold rain.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Highs in the lower 80s. Breezy. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 30 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with a 70-percent chance for showers and storms possible before midnight. Some severe. Lows in the lower 60s. Breezy. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a few afternoon and evening showers possible. Cooler. A ‘upside down day’ with temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s in the morning with temperatures falling through the day. Breezy. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance for rain around 30-percent.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows around 30. Still breezy. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Monday
Sunny, cooler. Highs around 50.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the lower 40s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Warmer. Lows in the lower 50s. chance for rain around 30-percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few showers, then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance for rain around 30-percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the upper 20s.
Friday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the mid 40s.
