Marginal severe risk today and tomorrow, cooldown expected towards the end of the weekend: Southeast Weather Forecast – 7/13/22

SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday // Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center

The next two days may see a small but notable chance for severe weather. Today, a line of modest instability and a slightly elevated amount of wind shear will be enough to prompt a Marginal Risk for severe storms across the Southeast. The main threat will be an isolated damaging wind threat.

Tomorrow, there is another marginal risk for severe weather in the Southeast. The risk shifts slightly southward. For this severe weather risk, the shear is a little higher across much of the region, but the instability is a little lower. The main threat will still be a chance for isolated damaging winds.

SPC severe weather outlook for Thursday // Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center

As we move forward over the next few days, a trough begins to dig toward the south, which will result in cooler temperatures throughout much of the Southeast. By “cooler”, I still mean mid 80s to lower 90s, which is warm but not as hot as some of the more recent temperatures the Southeast has experienced.

500 mb height projection for Monday at 4 pm according to GFS // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The cooler temperatures should persist from Sunday through at least Tuesday. Low temperatures should be in the low 70s across the region and even into the 60s in some places.

Temperature projection Tuesday at 4 AM according to GFS // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Three Day Forecasts (Courtesy: National Weather Service)

Dallas
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 104High: 103High: 102
Low: 81Low: 79Low: 80
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: NonePrecip: None
Houston
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 101High: 97High: 95
Low: 80Low: 79Low: 78
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: 40 percentPrecip: 30 percent
New Orleans
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 87High: 88High: 87
Low: 78Low: 77Low: 77
Precip: 80 percentPrecip: 80 percentPrecip: 70 percent
Little Rock
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 94High: 95High: 96
Low: 73Low: 73Low: 74
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: NonePrecip: None
Memphis
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 94High: 96High: 98
Low: 72Low: 74Low: 75
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: NonePrecip: None
Birmingham
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 91High: 87High: 91
Low: 71Low: 70Low: 71
Precip: 60 percentPrecip: 40 percentPrecip: 20 percent
Atlanta
WednesdayThursdayFriday
High: 85High: 85High: 88
Low: 71Low: 70Low: 69
Precip: 70 percentPrecip: 40 percentPrecip: 40 percent


Author of the article:


Patrick Kulynych

I am a recent graduate from the University of Alabama in Huntsville with a Bachelor's Degree in atmospheric science. My focus is on forecasting, especially for severe weather events. It is my dream to one day live out in the Great Plains, where I can not only forecast as a career but also go out and chase storms as a hobby!