The zonal / west-northwest flow pattern that’s set up across much of the US will spark an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms – some severe – on Saturday for southern Virginia and northern North Carolina.
yellow = 500 // red = 1000
Cities like Raleigh and Greensboro, NC and Roanoke, VA should keep an eye to the sky tomorrow.
The catalyst for the thunderstorm chances are a few disturbances will glide southeastward out of the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic.
Recent model guidance shows deep-layer shear values projected to be between 40 and 70kts with – more specifically – effective bulk shear values in the 35+ range. Often with these levels of shear – if other ingredients are there – there is the possibility to develop marginally severe weather. The recent computer weather models also suggest CAPE values between 500 J/kg and 1200 J/kg adding to the severe weather threat.
While the shear and CAPE soundings are capable of producing marginally severe storms, the available moisture might be in shorter supply. Dewpoint values are projected to be in the 40s and 50s.
Thunderstorms look like they have a chance to fire during the morning hours and again into the afternoon as a double-decker pair of systems glide through the area. The main threats Saturday – as it looks right now – will be damaging winds and large hail. As it looks right now, the tornado threat is quite minimal.
