The mid-day data is starting to trickle in and it isn’t promising for those who’ve been trying to “knock on wood” a bunch hoping it would go away.
What’s new?
The UH huh
The new Updraft Helicity, UH for short, streaks are in. I’ve taken a look at those as well as some other parameters to come up with some local areas where the severe weather potential may be a bit higher.
Note that the new data is supporting – and expanding – on the older data.
A quick note, too, that older data isn’t always “worse” data. The forecast data doesn’t always get better. But what is most important is consistency within the data. And given that one of three of the “areas of concern” is lying almost on top of one of the areas from last night, that gives forecasters higher confidence in the forecast.
You can read the map above as the darker shades of orange area the areas of even more increased confidence that severe weather will occur in that area.
Timing is everything
It is interesting to note that a few models have slowed things down a tough for our area, pushing the line through about an hour or two later than last night.
This is why I always give a broad range as we lead up to events – like 1pm to 1am. I try to start with a 12 hour window five days out, then knock it down to an eight-hour window two days out. Finally, my goal is to give a six hour window on the day before. In this case, that may not be possible because the window may be slightly more than 6 hours, and I try to give an hour buffer on each end.
It is starting to look like a 4p to 10p event – BUT! – We may have some outliers in there, so I want to leave the start time at 3p and the end time at 11p. For now.
What isn’t new?
Everyone else, not in those little circled areas? They still have a chance for severe weather, too. So, please – please! – don’t think, ‘I’m not in the circle, I’ll be fine’ because that isn’t what the circles are telling you.
I want to reiterate that the circles represent where there is the potential to see the strongest storms. Think of it like me giving away money to everyone in the area. But the people in the circle have a better chance at getting more money.
Everyone still have a chance to get money. Just some have a chance at seeing more of it.
And, as always, this still isn’t a guarantee that everyone gets severe weather. There will be some places that only get regular thunderstorms. But those regular storms could still heave very heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind and small hail.
We are still looking at those storms moving through during the afternoon and evening on Thursday.
You still need to have multiple ways of getting warnings. You still need to have a tornado plan.
What should I do with this information?
Please use this information to make better decisions about your schedule and plans on Thursday. Im not here ot tell you directly what to do, but I will say that if you have plans to be outside, traveling, or running errands on Thursday evening… those plans should be changed.
