Confidence is mounting – as is concern – that a dangerous icing event is about to roll through South Mississippi. The model guidance – as well as the NWS – continues to show a potential for a crippling ice storm for sections of the area.
Latest guidance
The 12z data is just starting to come in and it continues to show the colder air – currently parked to our west and northwest – oozing down a bit earlier than originally anticipated. The cold air is now slated to show about about three hours earlier. And that three hours may make all the difference.
The graphic above shows the comparison between all of the available model data for freezing rain accumulation. You can see a fair amount of variability when trying to nail down the fringe areas that may see a light glazing… But the “bullseye” of higher icing looks to be along and to the west of I-59 and back to the NW about 30-40 miles.
That above graphic is a quick glance guide, and can’t be used for specifics, but hopefully it highlights the general trend for precipitation during the day on Monday.
There is going to be a fair amount of variability across the “peak icing” area, too. Places that get the colder air first, or the lighter precipitation to start may not see as much ice accumulating, but the potential for some spots to see considerable ice is high enough to warrant highlighting that whole area.
What to expect
Power outages, trees down, branches down, impassable roads. Followed by very cold air for our area taking hold on Monday night once the precipitation comes to an end.
If you have to be somewhere Tuesday morning, I would recommend being there by Monday at noon. And where ever you are Monday at noon, I would prepare to be there until Tuesday at noon.
But, Nick, I gots 4 wheel drive, you dummy! I’ll be fine.
I’m glad you have a big truck or a Jeep. I, personally, love my Jeep. And I will likely drive it out to the station, just to be safe. But! While 4WD is very useful in mud and snow the only thing that will help me in my jeep is the extra surface area with my 32″ tires. Because 4-wheel drive is not 4-wheel stop. And the biggest concern in ice is stopping your vehicle, not making it go.
For proof of that, just look at what happened in Dallas this past week.
After precipitation comes to an end, we may have a “flash freeze” event where all of the liquid water left freezes before it can evaporate, leaving any area that didn’t get freezing rain and sleet in a situation where there is still ice on exposed surfaces.
Forecasts by area
Here is a breakdown of the forecasts by County for Monday:
Northern counties
Simpson County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light snow flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
Smith County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light snow flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
Jasper County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light snow flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
Clarke County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light snow flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
HWY 84 Corridor
Lawrence County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet and snow showers coming to an end
4pm – A few light flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
Jefferson Davis County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light snow flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows below 20 degrees
Covington County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Rain, changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Jones County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Rain, changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Wayne County
7am – Dry and cold.
10am – Rain, that quickly changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some lingering sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
HWY 98 Corridor
Walthall County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet and snow showers coming to an end
4pm – A few light flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Marion County
7am – Light rain begins to fall. Will turn to freezing rain quickly
10am – Freezing rain, now mixed with sleet, continues
1pm – Sleet and snow showers coming to an end
4pm – A few light flurries possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Lamar County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Rain, changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Forrest County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Rain, changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Perry County
7am – Dry and cold.
10am – Rain, that quickly changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some lingering sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Greene County
7am – Dry and cold.
10am – Rain, that quickly changes to freezing rain, continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some lingering sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
HWY 26 Corridor
Pearl River County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Cold rain continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
Stone County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Cold rain continues to fall
1pm – Freezing rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
George County
7am – Light rain begins to fall.
10am – Cold rain continues to fall
1pm – Rain showers coming to an end
4pm – Some light sleet possible
7pm – Precipitation has ended, very cold air filters in with overnight lows around 20 degrees
The Bottom Line
Be prepared for the potential for wintry precipitation, followed by some pretty cold air. Travel will be difficult Monday before noon. Places will be impassable by Monday afternoon – especially north. And, for some places, it will be almost impossible to drive anywhere overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning.
The good news is that by Tuesday afternoon, things will start to melt and temperatures will be above freezing. And you will be able to get places.
The bad news is that anything that doesn’t evaporate, will likely re-freeze overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
But by Wednesday afternoon, we will be back above freezing for a while. And life will get back to normal.
