As anticipated, the SPC Risk area shifted south a bit. The Moderate Risk area is across parts of central Mississippi with the Enhanced Risk covering most of Mississippi, parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and a sliver of Tennessee and Alabama.
The concerning thing, this morning, is the lack of storm clustering in the model guidance. The latest run of the extended HRRR model shows dozens of discrete cells marching across the landscape. Without any clustering, these storms could be free to grow and organize with little interference. This means that each one could have the potential to turn severe or produce a tornado.
With that in mind, the HREF data is also showing the bullseye of highest risk for strongest and most organized storms to be across south Mississippi this afternoon and evening. This doesn’t guarantee anything, but it sure is a signal that the atmosphere is rather primed.
The timeline for the event, in total, has shifted slightly earlier – for both rounds – with the lull in the action for some folks still looking to occur between about 8p and 11p. If you are looking to make plans today, this generalized timeline is here to hopefully help you plan your day and know when the threat is highest for storms.
Since I didn’t have time (or energy, sadly, with COVID) to do a county-by-county breakdown this time, please know that this threat is averaged out for the whole area. The timeline may be a bit earlier to the west and a bit later to the east.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog this morning with storms starting around noon. Some storms may be severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight
Showers and scattered storms. Some severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Wednesday
Partly sunny with storms ending before 10a. Less humid with highs around 70 in the morning with temperatures falling into the upper 50s in the afternoon. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night
Clear. Much cooler with lows in the upper 30s.
Thursday
Sunny, cooler with highs around 60.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 40.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 50s.
Saturday
Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Monday
Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Hi, Nick! Thanks for posting up! You’ve had our backs in the Pine Belt; no matter your zipcode. Oddly;(or maybe not?) My left knee and my hands have told off on this humidity, today. Praying for all in the path of this Squall Line. At this writing; (11/29, 8pm;); we are in the “lull” you wrote of. Praying safety for everyone overnight!