Things are calming down after an action-packed weekend of rain, storms, wind, and one more thing… what was it?
Oh, right. SNOW!
I hope everyone that got to see some flurries floating around took some pictures. Always fun to see snow this close to the Gulf. And it is even better when it doesn’t cause a lot of issues with travel, power, etc.
Looking forward, we are going to be stuck in this cooler patter for a few days. In fact, we may be ‘cooler than average’ for the next about 14 days. We will have a few days here and there that we will bounce above-average, but for the most part, keep those jackets and coats handy, you’ll need them.
On top of that, during the last 24 hours, it seems like there has been a rumble of interest if this type of snow event could happen again later this week.
Sure, it could. But as I used to say on TV, it is also possible a meteor could crash into Earth later this week, too. So it all about figuring out how likely something is. To do that, we need to “check the tape” and see what the model guidance is kicking out.
Looking at the last 72 hours of model data from the GFS computer weather model, I can see where the riff-raff started: The overnight model guidance last Thursday night and into Friday morning.
That when all of that blue, pink and purple was on the map showing snow, sleet, and freezing rain from San Antonio to Pensacola.
But since that point, most of that has disappeared from the map. Something that is pretty typical in this type of setup. Some of you may recall my post the other day about why forecasts change, and how when you start looking out further in time, the variability from one model tot he next can get very large sue to how forecast models work.
This is a prime example of that very effect!
So, no snow, Nick?
Well, Snow Lovers, I didn’t say that, either. Because, while this type of pattern doesn’t typically produce snow for Southern MS/AL/LA, it is going to be close to a pattern that has produced snow recently. As recently as 2017.
While that day was a bit different in a handful of ways, the general idea was over-running precipitation on top of near-freezing or below-freezing temperatures. And leading up to the event we were thinking the low-level temperatures would be slightly too warm for snow and that in the places where it was cold enough, there wouldn’t be enough forcing.
We were wrong on both accounts. So, in this case, I don’t think I would be as quick to rule it out.
But, this time we are missing a few things that we had for the big 2017 December Snowfall
Moisture is the big one. The lower levels are much drier than model guidance was showing for the December 2017 snow. For that even the dry air was in the lowest, roughly, 4,000ft. This time, model guidance is showing that it will be drier from about 9,000ft down. In 2017, we had Omega (forcing) in the DGZ, this time, none of that. For the big snow event, temperatures at the surface were in the mid 30s and this time, well, actually this time that lines up.
And there are a host of other comparative analysis we could do. But this isn’t an identical setup. Nor is it technically “close” but it is “similar” so I don’t think it can be completely discounted at this point in time.
Plus, the top analog from the CIPS Analogs was a snow/ice event in 2014. At a 13.1/15 no less.
The second highest analog was also a freezing rain/sleet event in 2015.
So… then? What does that mean?
Snow isn’t very likely at this point. Sadly, I think it is still too early to lean in on any snowfall. But I know the big joke around the region every time I downplay the chance for snow, “That’s what he said in 2017… and we got a foot!”
As an aside, I giggle now because that snow event is turning into a fish story. Most folks got 2″to 5″ with a like two or three spots that tagged 7″ and now people joke about getting a foot or two.
But this is the type of event that is a total boom or bust. And the CIPS suggest it may be more of a freezing rain and sleet event than snow.
And I said after the December 2017 snow that if the same event happened again, same maps, same data, same everything that I would probably still call for no sticking snow. That is how much of a crazy anomalous event it was. I even calculated it out to be a once-in-a-lifetime event. I think the recurrence interval was more than 80 years!
So, could a big snow happen again? Sure. But it isn’t very likely given the available data.
As more data comes down and we get a better idea about how things will shake out, that may change. Unlike this last event where Mother Nature has a ‘tell’ that I’ve learned to bet on (pretty well, actually), this type of event does not.
So hang in there! I’ll continue to monitor things in the coming days and try to nail things down as best I can. But for now, regular rain is the forecast.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the mid 40s.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible int eh afternoon and evening. Strong storms possible. Warmer. Highs in the lower 70s. breezy south wind 10 to 20mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible before midnight. Some strong storms possible. Lows in the mid 40s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a few morning showers possible. Much cooler. Highs around 50. Chance for rain is about 30-percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Colder. Lows around 30.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 40s. This is the day where things would be interesting with the potential wintry weather
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 30.
Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 30.
Sunday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs around 50.
