The weather is actually looking pretty good for about 85-percent of this week. Passing clouds, plenty of sunshine and temperatures warm enough to wake up a lot of the plants (if they aren’t starting to poke out already).
In fact, it has felt like places a bit farther south than the central Gulf Coast. Looking at this neat tool from University of North Carolina, it looks like the recent stretch of weather is more like what Orlando would be enjoying this time of year. And the last two days it has been like Puerto Rico!
While the last week hasn’t been “summerlike” but certainly like late March and early April.
You folks that have lived down here for a while know, though, that any time we get this Spring warmth in Winter, it only can lead to one thing: Storms.
By Wednesday, it looks like most of the storms – and the threat for severe weather – will be mostly north of I-20. And this would likely be along the warm front, so most storms will be elevated in nature, leading to the main concern being gusty wind and hail.
By Thursday, it looks like we will actually get a cold front to try and push through the region. And that means storms. The CIPS Analogs data suggests that historically speaking this is the type of setup that produces severe weather. In fact, looking at the Top 15 most similar events in the past, more than half produced at least 5 severe weather reports along I-20 near Jackson.
The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted part of the area with a Slight and Enhanced Risk for severe weather.
That is a “2” or a “3” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather. Right now, this does look like it may include some overnight storms across parts of the area, too. So now would be a good time to double-check you NOAA Weather Radio to make sure it is programmed correctly and ready to go. Also a good time to download an app on your phone that will ping you when new warnings are issued.
And I know a good one to get! I may be biased, but the new NickelBlock Forecasting app is a great app to download and have on your phone during severe weather. You can get updates on the forecast on your schedule, track storms on the radar, and get alerts from the NWS (even program it to send you only the alerts you care about),
For our area, this is the last weather app you’ll ever need.
REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST
Today
Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny. Less humid with highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a few storms, mainly north. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance for rain around 20 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with storms possible. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with storms possible. Some severe. Breezy. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday
Sunny, cooler with highs around 70.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Much cooler with lows in the mid 40s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Thanks!