Happy Tuesday, I hope everyone enjoyed their long weekend. We have quite a lot to cover in this forecast, so I will get started. We have a major heat wave impacting portions of Texas and Louisiana, with heat index values approaching 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49) degrees Celsius. Parts of the southeast can expect to see rain and thunderstorms chances to continue throughout this week, so keep the umbrella handy. Looking at the topics, Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic and could develop into a hurricane in the next 3 to 5 days, with possible impacts on the Caribbean and the East Coast of the United States.
The Heat is on.
For those who live in Texas and Louisiana, you have probably been staying inside or stuck outside in the sweltering heat. Unfortunately, this heat is expected to continue for the region this week. A persistent ridge of high pressure has been forcing hot, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region. It’s looking like this high-pressure system is expected to stick around the area this week. This ridge of high pressure has forced the subtropical jet stream north, leaving hot humid air in Texas and Louisiana. Not only will it be extremely hot, rainfall chances have all but diminished, contributing to the drought in Texas. Daily high temperatures are expected to rise into the high 90s and low 100s, with heat index values expected to hit 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49 degrees Celsius). Not much relief is expected overnight, with low temperatures expected to only be in the high 70s or low 80s. Those working or spending time outside need to keep cool and drink plenty of water. Also, scattered power outages are expected across Texas, as this heat is putting stress on the Texas power grid system.
More rainfall for the Southeast.
After a somewhat dry start to June, the Southeast can expect a soggy week, with high chances of rainfall and thunderstorms this week. Due to the high pressure in Texas, the subtropical jet has been forced north, leaving the Southeast near the sinking side of the jet. Due to this location, moist air is being forced downwards. Combine this with multiple low-pressure systems coming from the Gulf of Mexico, and you get a moist environment right for rain and thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts will vary (especially with thunderstorms), but most of the Southeast can expect 3-5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of up to 7 inches (18cm) of rainfall by Sunday the 25th. Persons in the area should be prepared for wet weather and dress appropriately. Areas with poor drainage may flood, so prepare for local flooding.
A Possible Hurricane in the Atlantic.
So far, it has been a fairly active season in the Atlantic Basin, and it looks like this trend will continue. We have our second named storm of the season, which is named Tropical Storm Bret.
Current forecasted paths of Tropical Storm Bert put it close to striking major Caribbean Islands, such as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. As of right now, there is no guarantee that this storm will strike the Eastern Seaboard, so there is no reason to be overly concerned; just remember to keep an eye on this storm. Stretching is expected, with possible hurricane-force winds by 2 pm Wednesday the 21st. Remember that hurricane winds are sustained winds that are at least 64 knots or 74 mph. If you want more details about this storm, head over to the hurricane forecast page, where you can find more information on this developing storm.
Travel Impacts for June 20th, 2023
Areas in the Southeast and Texas are expected to see the most significant travel impacts. Flights that are arriving or departing out of the Southeast could see some delays due to the heavy rain forecasted tomorrow. Some major airports that could see delays are Atlanta, Charlotte, and Nashville. Remember to check your flight information if you are traveling through these airports. Air travel around the rest of the country should not see any major delays, but remember that only a few delayed flights can mess up the whole air system. If you are planning on driving long distances tomorrow, there will be some impacts. Motorists in the Southeast may be affected by rain and thunderstorms, so be prepared for driving in wet weather. Drivers in Texas and Louisiana are expected to encounter extreme heat and humidity, so keep an eye on your car’s temperature gauge.
Extended Outlook
Looking at the short-term forecast, the heatwave over Texas looks to continue, bringing more dangerously hot and humid temperatures along with little to no chance of rainfall. Areas to the north can also expect a warm-up, with warmer than average temperatures. The only region that should expect cooler-than-average temperatures is California and the middle portion of the Atlantic Coast. Areas near both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts can expect wetter than average weather, while the South-Central portion of the U.S. can expect dryer than average conditions.
Conclusions
The Subtropical jet will continue to remain in place due to the center of high pressure. This will lead to sweltering conditions continuing in Texas and Louisiana. Due to the location of the high-pressure system, the subtropical jet will allow air to sink and combine with low-pressure systems from the Gulf of Mexico. These two factors will allow for heavy rainfall across much of the Southeast. As for Tropical Storm Bret, we will be keeping an eye on and updating you on this unusually early tropical cyclone.
