National Hurricane Center highlights new area of concern

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: NHC has increased the chance there is tropical development. For the latest info: http://nickelblock.com/?p=30450

ORIGINAL POST FROM SATURDAY:

The National Hurricane center has highlighted an area that will need to be monitored in the Atlantic in the coming days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week. Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Models are still honing in on some sort of development, however the strength of what ever tries to develop is still ‘to be determined’ given that the model data is spread pretty far apart.

Currently the European model is the most aggressive with development (shown above). The GFS (both the latest derivative and the legacy model) both show a lack of any organization.

So which model is right?

None of them are correct at this point. It is still too far out for specifics. For now, all we can gather from model data is that there is a chance for development in the Gulf and it needs to monitored.

This is a good time, though, to double-check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit.