Latest from the SPC:
With such an amplified system and strong meridional flow aloft, multiple areas of convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning. The main influencing factor regarding timing and location of potential severe weather will be with one or more north-south oriented bands of storms across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valleys, likely in advance of the surface cold front. The latest convection-allowing model guidance converges towards a scenario with the placement of a north to south oriented squall line at 30/12z located from western TN/eastern AR south into northern LA and southwestern LA. A squall line is forecast to continue eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley into AL where a moisture-rich airmass will support moderate buoyancy. Despite the presence of enlarged low-level hodographs, a linear convective mode (nonsupercell) is forecast and will likely limit the overall tornado risk. Additionally, 0-3 km shear vectors with respect to projected line segment motion will be suboptimal for a heightened mesovortex tornado risk, although the moist low levels may support some low-tornado threat. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are forecast to be the primary severe hazard and could concentrate primarily near LEWP/bowing structures in the QLCS. This band is forecast to gradually weaken with eastward extent as it outpaces large-scale ascent and encounters increasing inhibition. Behind these storms, uncertainty exists with the potential for re-development of convection along the front (due to prior convective overturning).
