The National Hurricane Center increased the chance of development for the latest African Wave to 40-percent Tuesday night.
From the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and theNorthwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Model guidance continues to show true development after the Day Five period, however some semblance of organization for the latest wave (or Number 2 above) during the Day Four to Day Five timeframe.
