The National Hurricane Center announced March 2, 2021 that Tropical Weather Outlooks will now begin on May 15th for the Atlantic Hurricane season.
From the NHC:
Public Information Statement
Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Tropical Weather Outlook beginning on May 15, 2021 In order to provide more frequent information on the potential for tropical cyclone formation as the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the National Hurricane Center will begin routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the Graphical TWO at 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) May 15, 2021.
Given recent increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin in late May, routine issuance of the Atlantic TWO starting on May 15 offers a service improvement over unscheduled Special TWOs that are issued to discuss the possibility of tropical cyclone formation prior to the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
The Atlantic TWO can be found under AWIPS header MIATWOAT and WMO header ABNT20 KNHC. The TWO and Graphical TWO can also be found online at hurricanes.gov.
Seven of the last 11 years have feature preseason named storms. But since 2015, there has been a named storm before the official start of Hurricane season each year.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season produced two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, during May and one more, Cristobal, that formed June 1st. Bertha and Cristobal made landfall.
In 2019, Subtropical storm Andrea formed during May. It stayed out to sea. While in 2018, Tropical Storm Alberto formed in May and made landfall before the official start of Hurricane Season. In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the open Atlantic and remained out at sea.
The oddest year was 2016. Hurricane Alex formed in January of 2016. So when the first storm of “Hurricane Season” arrived, it was named Tropical Storm Bonnie, as the “A” storm formed in January.
In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana formed in May. While in 2014 and 2013, there were not a preseason storms.
Back in 2012, both Tropical Storm Alberto and Beryl formed in May. Beryl made landfall in Florida.
Prior to that in 2011 and 2010, there were no preseason named storms.
Does this change ‘Hurricane Season’ officially?
No. The official start of Hurricane Season is still June 1st. For now. The National Hurricane Center is simply saying that it understands the utility of having official forecasts available during the two weeks leading into Hurricane Season given the trends of the past decade for producing preseason storms.
The World Meteorological Organization will be the ‘decider’ of if Hurricane Season changes the start date officially.
