The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring an area for potential tropical development.
The wave is located near the Greater & Lesser Antilles.
From the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A persistent area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance is expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
Eventual area of development
As the NHC mentioned, as this moves NW across the Caribbean, it will eventually end up near the Bahamas… and at that point development may be more likely.
But, since that is looking about five days out, it is tough to discern what will happen after that point. However, there is some indication that there may be enough of a weakness in the Bermuda High to keep this thing away from the US Coast.
However, as is often pointed out, looking beyond five days in the Tropics can be an exercise in futility. So we will continue to monitor this.
Answering a few questions
How strong will it be?
We can’t know that yet. Sadly our ability to place where something in the Tropics will be exceeds our ability to know how developed / strong it will be when it gets there.
What should I do now?
Check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. That’s about it. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water.
Not because this system is anticipated to wipe out power and water to an area, but rather, you should always have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water during Hurricane season.
