It should be another nice day today with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 60s. Hopefully no real reason to complain about the weather today.
As we move through the week, this picture-perfect weather will give way to increasing clouds and another shot for showers and storms. The next chance for rain will arrive on Wednesday.
This next system will be a bit split if the recent model guidance is correct. First we get a line of potent storms (still trying to nail down the risk of severe weather, but it isn’t zero) through the area, then the cold front shows up about 12 hours later. The fact that the storms show up well before the front, would help to limit the threat of a massive wall of severe storms. But it would increase, slightly, the risk for discrete storms producing tornadoes.
The CIPS Analogs data show, what equates to, a Slight Risk for severe weather. With a 5-percent tornado risk underneath this.
And when you thumb into the data itself, the historical analogs dates, the outcomes are a bit of ‘boom or bust’ with three situations that produces a lot of severe weather and two that didn’t really produce any.
Recall that the CIPS Analogs look at the model data for the upcoming weather and then look back in time to see when the atmosphere looked like the forecast suggests it will look. And then it asks, “what happened?”
So reading the above maps, we can say that the CIPS Analogs looked at 11 different atmospheric parameters through history back to 1979 and found that when those parameters looked similar to what the model guidance is showing for Wednesday… in the Top 5 most similar situations, 3 out of 5 times there was severe weather.
So if you have outdoor plans for Wednesday, you may want to think about having a backup plan. And if you have ‘general’ plans for Wednesday you may simply want to keep tabs on the forecast. We are still in a bit of a wait-and-see situation at the moment, but it is always good to have a backup plan in these situations. .
Once we get through that, we get a dry few days before the next system shows up as we move into the following week.
HAVE YOU CHECKED OUT THE NICKELBLOCK FORECASTING APP YET? IT IS STILL IN ‘BETA‘ BUT YOU CAN READ ABOUT IT AND DOWNLOAD THE APP (CLICK THE LINK AT TEH END OF THE POST) HERE!
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows around 40. North winds around 5 mph.
Monday
Sunny. Highs around 70. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows around 50. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Wednesday
Cloudy. Storms possible in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with storms possible. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a few lingering showers possible. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Friday
Clearing skies. Still partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Saturday
Sunny, cooler with highs in the mid 50s.
