Today will be mostly clear and quiet across our area, with just a slight chance for showers due to a surface trough moving westward. This system will mainly bring a slight increase in humidity, while better rain chances stay south along a stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico. The rise in humidity means tonight’s lows will be a few degrees warmer compared to this morning. Otherwise, no major impacts.
That may change later this week, though. As soon as tomorrow, perhaps.
The first thing we may see is slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow. The model guidance from NQLBOT above is likely too cool for tomorrow’s highs, but I think we will be slightly cooler than today given the potential extra cloud cover and a few extra showers in the area.
Why the cloud cover? The tropics.
The big focus for the week is on “Potential Tropical Cyclone Six” in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While it is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Francine, the exact track and intensity remain uncertain at this time. Current models and the National Hurricane Center forecast show the system tracking north-northeast, potentially impacting our area late Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday morning.
On its current path, it could bring flash flooding, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes to our region.
As we get closer, forecasts will be fine-tuned with more specific information on potential impacts. By Friday, light showers will linger, but conditions should clear by the afternoon with breezy winds tapering off. The weekend looks warm and muggy, with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the mid-60s.
QUICK NOTE ON TROPICS
UPDATE AS OF 10:07AM: TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE HAS FORMED.
Tropical Storm Francine has officially formed this morning, with sustained winds of 45 knots. The system has been better organized, showing a large area of cold convection near its center. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft confirmed a well-defined circulation, prompting its upgrade from Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.
Francine is currently moving north-northwest, but its track is expected to shift northward and then north-northeast. Models show some uncertainty in the exact landfall timing, but current forecasts have Francine reaching the Louisiana coast on Wednesday evening. While intensification is expected to be gradual initially, conditions could lead to more rapid strengthening, and Francine may become a hurricane before making landfall.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mississippi/Alabama border. There’s a growing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding in coastal regions. Residents in the watch areas should monitor updates and follow local officials’ advice as the storm approaches.
The Hurricane Hunters are currently flying through PTC6 (as of this writing). And if they can find a specific center, we will start to get a much better idea as to where this thing may be headed. Until they do, though, we are still having to work off ensemble guidance and tropical models that can’t key in on a specific “start point” to begin the modeling.
But the track continues to shift eastward slightly with every next round of model guidance drops. And we have a surprising amount of consensus given the fact that we still don’t have a coherent center.
Interesting to note that I mentioned in yesterday’s update that you should ‘expect’ Rapid Intensification on this thing and this morning some of the model guidance is coming back with a short burst opportunity to tag a Cat 3 storm.
Is that possible? Sure. It is possible. But it isn’t “likely” at this point. That would certainly be surprising to see happen. But given how warm the Gulf is, not completely unexpected to see in the model guidance. I hope that makes sense.
Keeping in mind that sometimes: True Reality ≠ Model Guidance Output
I think the ceiling on this storm is Category 3 given the limited time it will have over the Gulf and the dry air that is set to invade the system as it makes landfall — but the chances we reach the ceiling are going to be dictated by multiple other factors and we may never get there.
Again I hope all of that makes sense. I know this can all be a bit confusing to digest.
I will have a more robust update later today.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 70. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain around 10 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday: Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday Night: Rain and thunder. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thank you Nick! Your forecasts are our preferred source of weather reporting.
Track shifted West on the, 4 PM advisory. Is MS out of danger now?