I know everyone’s focus is on the potential for severe weather tomorrow afternoon, evening and into the overnight hours, but today will be nice, all things considered.
Tomorrow and into early Wednesday morning will be the problem time period.
The Storm Prediction Center is still monitoring the area for severe weather with a Moderate Risk still in place. A Moderate Risk is a “4” on the 1-to-5 scale were “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather. There were only minor changes from the SPC overnight.
The Technical Discussion from the SPC:
Indications are that an outbreak of severe storms remains likely Tuesday, centered across the lower Mississippi Valley region and vicinity. Thunderstorms -- and all-hazards severe risk -- will be ongoing at the start of the period from East Texas across the Arklatex region. Steady eastward progression of this band of pre-frontal convection will occur, as persistent warm sector southerlies advect Gulf moisture northward. Given very strong south-southwesterly flow aloft atop the low-level southerlies, and aided by an amply unstable airmass, strongly rotating storms are expected through the morning, spreading out of east Texas and into Louisiana. Tornadoes -- including potential for significant events -- remain a likelihood, along with damaging winds and hail. In addition to the pre-frontal band of storms that will spread eastward with time across the ENH and eventually MDT risk areas, isolated cellular development will be possible in a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the primary convective band. Any such cells could quickly acquire updraft rotation, and would pose potential for significant/damaging tornadoes. As such, some areas may experience more than one round of potentially significant weather. The bounds of the northern fringe of the risk area remain difficult to discern, as very strong shear will exist well north, but with ongoing/elevated convection likely to limit northward advance of more favorable low-level air. Still, severe storm risk currently appears to extend at least as far north as northern Mississippi/northern Alabama. Severe/tornado risk will continue through the evening/overnight as the cold front -- and associated pre-frontal convection -- advances. At this time, it appears risk may extend as far east as eastern Alabama and western parts of the Florida Panhandle late in the period.
If you are curious, “will they put a ‘5’ risk out? What is that?” I do think so and that is a “High” Risk area.
But I think there is one piece of advice that is an important thing to remember here: It almost doesn’t matter. The big picture difference between a “Moderate Risk” and a “High Risk” in terms of eventual severe weather that happens is negligible. Because both are ssaying significant severe weather is possible.
It would be like trying to make the distinction between an F-14 and an F-16 when you’re in a dogfight. And you’re flying a Cessna. Using a bow and arrow as a weapon. At that point, it really doesn’t matter anymore. And any arguments about one versus the other is more for enthusiasts on the ground, far away from the action.
For an hour-by-hour, county-by-county breakdown you can check out my forecast from yesterday.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 60. Southeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20-percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Showers and storms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90-percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Showers and storms possible. Some thunderstorms may be severe before midnight. Breezy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 45.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 50.
Friday
Passing high clouds. Highs around 70.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 70s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 55.
Sunday
Mostly Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
