The forecast for this weekend continues to look nice. The humidity will continue to be up a bit, but overall things will be drier and not quite as foggy as the last few days. But we will continue to see that southerly flow and we will continue to pool Gulf moisture at the surface.
And, as we head into our secondary severe weather season, that isn’t always a good thing. Because by the middle of next week a cold front will be swinging through the region and looks to offer the chance for showers and storms. I’ve been mentioning the last few days that this one would need to be monitored as it could feature some strong storms and severe weather couldn’t be ruled out.
The Storm Prediction Center has went one step further and already thrown out a Slight Risk for severe weather for next Wednesday.
A quick reminder: Just because we can seethe potential for storms a bit further away (Day 6) doesn’t mean they will necessarily be more potent. It just means we can tell that this setup will be one potential for producing severe weather.
That said, there is some history with a setup like this. And it stems from looking into the tropics. Andy Hazleton was the first to point out (last week) that the next two weeks should remain quiet in teh tropics due to the overall pattern.
Rabbit Hole
Let’s go tumbling down the rabbit hole of weatherdom. Last week I had a brief twitter chat with one researcher based on another researchers post and it led to an early heads up that severe weather may be possible next week.
Tony Lyza, a great meteorologist and severe weather researcher noticed that the dates in teh lower right-hand corner of that graphic looked familiar.
How familiar? I had to ask.
… I just had to ask.
It turns out that it was the date of the record for severe weather in October at the time. Well, up until 2010.
So, the overall pattern is one that promotes the potential development of severe weather – and potentially significant severe weather – somewhere. Figuring out where is the next toughest part. And that is what we will be doing, as a community of meteorologists, over the weekend and into next week.
Looking at the model data, you see the same thing. Potential is there, but specifically where is a bit hazy and messy.
Looking at the Skew-T from the 00z GFS computer weather model from this morning, you can see why the SPC is highlighting the area. Lapse rates are good, instability is there, shear is decent, helicity values are within historical norms and the LCLs are low enough.
But we will have to watch and see just how things progress. Keep checking back for updates.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Saturday
Sunny as the wind flips back to the south. Slightly more humid. Highs in the lower 80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday
Partly cloudy with some isolated storms in the afternoon possible. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out. Highs in the mid 80s. The chance for rain is around 20-percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Some severe. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear with a 40-percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday
Mostly Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s.
Graphical Forecast
