REMINDER: Check your settings on the app! Starting this week, based on your feedback, I’m going to be sending out a ‘morning ping’ regarding the updated forecast. If you want to opt-out of that, I’ve made that possible. Check out this link for more info: https://www.nickelblock.com/you-control-your-pings-on-the-nickelblock-forecasting-weather-app-new-features/
Some other ‘housekeeping’ notes. I’m re-working some of the maps and the Ag Forecast so those will not be in the daily email this week. But they will be back next week (I hope) with some added features. The forecasts may be a bit less robust this week, too, as I’m dealing with some personal / family things that are taking a lot of my attention outside of work. Apologies. But I’m not great at handling death. Especially those close to me.
Okay, on to the forecast….
I’m just about ready to put a fork in our Spring Tornado Season. While, sure a brief or weak tornado will still be possible with the next few systems that push through, the threat for the nasty big brothers like we saw in March is quickly coming to an end (unless something changes, drastically, within the model guidance).
The forecast does feature a few chances for rain and an outside shot for technical severe weather, though, in the coming days. But the main concerns will be brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind and small hail.
It looks like there’s a broad upper-level longwave trough hanging over much of the US today, with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and another one sliding southeastward from Idaho toward New Mexico. Closer to home, there’s a subtle shortwave trough that’s causing some weak precipitation to develop over southern Missouri to northern Louisiana. The chances for anything measurable at the surface should remain farther north, with only a few brief sprinkles expected farther south into our forecast area. Rain chances will increase again late tonight into Wednesday morning as a more substantial low pressure system approaches from the west.
Midweek, there’ll be some zonal flow across the Gulf Coast, which means another chance for some rain on Wednesday. Depending on your location, you may end up with a brief downpour or a few sprinkles.
On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move in from NE Texas and bring widespread precipitation to our area. With some pretty decent values ahead of the system, early model guidance shows the potential for an environment favorable for isolated severe storms, with our main threats being damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Highs look to push into the low 80s.
Friday through Tuesday, the previous trough will be exiting our region, although some showers may still linger. Weather should be mainly quiet through midday before a long wave trough developing over the Central Plains makes its way eastward. There’s limited potential for severe weather, but we’ll continue to monitor this system since it’s still a little less than a week away. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s for the weekend, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny. Highs around 80. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the lower 80s.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
I’m so sorry to hear about the loss of your loved one. Totally understandable that you are not up to par and appreciate all that you do for us. Prayers for you and your family.