Earlier today the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) gave their analysis of the severe weather situation for the Texas Panhandle.
It reads:
SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON INCREASING S/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM LEE CYCLONE OVER SE CO INTO SW TX. DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F TO THE MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL KS. AS APPROACHING SPEED MAX OVER NM OVERSPREADS THE REGION…SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE BY 00Z AS EML ERODES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER…GIVEN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AS COMPOSITE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SURGES EWD OVERNIGHT…THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED/BROKEN LINE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN INTO CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER…STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY MAINTAIN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
Officially, the National Weather Service has the Texas Panhandle under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. With a 5- to 15-percent chance for a severe storm.
