The national weather service is currently looking at the southern half of Alabama and parts of western Georgia for severe weather development this afternoon.
The current atmospheric set up is conducive to severe weather development through the afternoon. Both the CAPE and Shear values will support a few isolated supercell thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and an isolated tornado.
Right now the SPC has the area painted with a “5-percent” tornado probability.
From the Storms Prediction Center:
Summary…. A severe threat is likely to develop this afternoon across scntrl al and wrn ga. A few tornadoes along with a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible with the more intense cells. Ww issuance will be possible for this afternoon across parts of srn and ern al extending newd into wrn ga.
Discussion…Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across scntrl al and in the wrn fl panhandle at the ern edge of moderate instability. Objective analysis shows mlcape values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range across the wrn part of the mcd area and instability should continue to increase over the next few hours. The cells are initiating in a weakly forced environment due to sfc heating but may increase in coverage as a band of large-scale ascent approaches late this afternoon. A moderate to strong wind shear environment exists across the mcd area with 0-6 km shear estimated at 40 to 50 kt. In addition…The wsr-88d vwp in sw al shows about 25 kt of 0-1 km shear with substantial directional shear in the boundary layer. This should enable cells to rotate and supercell development will be possible. A tornado and isolated large hail threat should exist with supercells. Wind damage will also be possible as cells mature later this afternoon.
The SPC says the probability that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued is 60-percent.
