As we begin to enter the peak months of hurricane season, so far, we have seen a below-average number of named tropical storms and hurricanes. That is not to say things cannot change at the drop of a hat because they most certainly can. It is important to not let your guard down and to stay vigilant as we enter the height of the season. With that being said, an area of interest has developed in the Caribbean Sea, while the Pacific has calmed down for at least the near-term.
Beginning in the Atlantic side of things, a tropical wave is currently located in the northwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Belize. This wave will transition across the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging again the southwest Gulf of Mexico and continue to track northwestward. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center is only giving this tropical wave a 10% chance of organizing over the next 48 hours and a 30% chance of organizing over the next 5 days. This is primarily due to the presence of moderately high mid and upper level wind shear over the expected track of this wave. It will remain to be seen if this area of interest can overcome this and mature, or if the wind shear will tear it apart before it can get together.
The possibility for development elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean also remains low at this time. While thunderstorms continue to move off the western coast of Africa, development remains unfavorable due to high wind shear as well as Saharan dust driving down the moisture content in the air.
Over in the Pacific, things remain quiet for now with no organized tropical storms or areas of interest expected. Owing to this is, once again, substantial wind shear but also somewhat cooler SSTs than what has been present up to this point.
Taken all this into consideration and the relative absence of organized tropical storms up to this point, NOAA has revised its projection for the Atlantic hurricane season. A slight reduction in the overall likelihood of an above-normal season (from 65% to 60%) and a slight increase in the likelihood of a near-normal season (from 25% to 30%) has been made due to the relative absence of organized tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, confidence in an above average season still remains high due to overall favorable long term atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
