Not a bad day today with a few storms possible, but showers and storms are back in the forecast as we move through the weekend, but these storms won’t be as potent as the last few rounds and won’t be as widespread, either.
Both Saturday and Sunday will feature chances for rain and storms, and that may leave any outdoor activities a bit soggy. Plus, if storms are nearby you may have to watch out for lightning, gusty wind, and small hail, too.
Storms on Saturday will not be moving the typical direction for Spring storms, so that may be one thing to keep in mind. Storms on Saturday will be moving from Northwest to Southeast. Normally storms move from Southwest to Northeast.
This change in direction means that the potential for certain types of severe weather will be higher while others will be lower.
For example, on Saturday (and Sunday) the threat for hail will be a bit higher. It doesn’t mean hail will be bigger, necessarily, but it means that the way the storms are going to be oriented will be more conducive to producing hailstones that fall to the ground without melting first.
Conversely, the tornado threat will be a bit lower. Storms that move from northwest to southeast in this part of the country have a much more difficult time producing tornadoes due to how the orientation of storm inflow winds are relative to the rain shield and upper-level wind.
Doesn’t mean it is impossible, just means it is more difficult.
Sunday will feature storms that are probably a bit later in the day and a bit more isolated. But the same rules apply. Storms will be moving from Northwest to Southeast and the threat for severe weather will be there, but it will also feature a lower-than-typical tornado threat.
The two above images are a look at what the atmosphere will look like on Sunday evening. A few isolated-to-scattered storms, with the potential to turn severe weather the main concerns being heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind and small hail. The tornado threat would be pretty low, though not totally zero.
If you have any outdoor activities on Sunday morning, the computer mdoels keep most of the rain across parts of northern Mississippi and Alabama.
That may change during the next 24-36 hours. I have a sneaking suspicion that the storms on Saturday are going to dictate where the storms on Sunday erupt due to lingering outflow boundaries and other mesoscale perturbations that may linger in the region after the storms move through Saturday evening.
After that point, things clear out for next week and – so far – there is no chance for severe weather next week. Hopefully that holds. I know many of us are tired of “Wild Weather Wednesdays” for sure.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a few passing showers and storms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance for rain around 20-percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the mid 60s.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible before 10p. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance for storms in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe. The main threat is heavy rain, gusty wind and hail. Tornado threat very low. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible before 10p. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Monday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Cooler with lows in the lower 50s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Wednesday
Partly sunny. No storms anticipated. No severe weather. I repeat a Wednesday with no storms and no severe weather. Highs in the lower 80s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
