Hello all and happy Saturday! For today’s weather outlook, we are continuing to track increased chances for stormy weather over the next couple of days, before a ridge to our west starts to move in and lower our rain chances down to the 20-40 percent range.
As usual, we will begin with a current synoptic outlook and then progress into what this means down at the surface.
If we take a look at the current synoptic picture across the CONUS, we can see the main features being a trough in the northeast, along with a ridge to the west with the axis extending to our general area in the southeast. Given the northwesterly flow across the region and the ridge axis being near Colorado, this gives our region a decent chance at seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This is also supported by the fact that precipitable water values are quite high across much of the general area.
Much of the region is above 2″, which areas along the coast pushing closer to 2.25″, this allows for storms that form due to convective day-time heating the chance to drop and considerable amount of rainfall in a short period of time.
Taking a look at the modeled precipitation for tomorrow, the HRRR leaves precipitation coverage mainly scattered, meaning hit or miss storms, that can drop a lot of rain if you end up under one.
For high temperatures along the coast, the southerly wind continues to keep things slightly cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s, increasing as you head inland closer to 90.
If we begin to take a look at the pattern in the beginning of the work week, we can expect the ridge currently further to our west to begin to shift slightly to the east, enhancing its affect on our area.
For our area, this means a reduction in rain chances for the beginning of the week. The risk will still be there for thunderstorms and showers each day, however the ridge being closer to our area increases subsidence or downward vertical motion, hindering precipitation formation.
This pattern is expected to change later into next week, where an upper-level ridge is expected to retrograde or move back towards the west, and allow for troughing to set up over our region.
For later in the week, this will mean an increase in chances for thunderstorms and showers, as we get additional atmospheric lift to create storms from troughing over our area.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Wind south at 5mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs near 90. Wind south at 5mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to right around 90. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Thursday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
