Possible links between SST, rainfall, TX/OK panhandle tornadoes

Yes, the title isn’t exactly gasp-worthy. Nor is it a ground-breaking new idea. I know. But What I found out was interesting!

For those of you who frequent this site – and there aren’t many of you – you know that I’ve been rather preoccupied the last week or so digging through data from the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, Texas.

I was looking at data from 1997 through 2013. I examined global sea surface temperatures, monthly rainfall for Amarillo and spring tornado reports.

I was trying to keep my side project “on the DL” as the kids say. No real reason, I just didn’t want to “jinx” myself, I guess.

Yesterday, I completed the statistical analysis of all of the data and I’m preparing a quick write up for how the numbers all add up. But before I start writing, I wanted to give you guys a look at the data I was sifting through (above), as well as, a few things I learned.

Things I learned:

  • After looking at everything, there is a potential relationship between the Gulf of Mexico SST, Gulf of Alaska SST, ENSO, October to April rainfall and the number of tornadoes across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles
  • Strong La Nina and El Nino show “lag time” in changing the number of tornadoes
  • Assigning values derived from previous researchers to each variable, a given year’s tornado activity (“above average” or “below average”) can be accurately predicted 76-percent of the time

I want to caution everyone that this little project is not intended to be “scholarly research” at all. This is just something that sparked my curiosity one day and I wanted to investigate. It should probably not be cited or used in future research – of any kind.

The main goal was to see if there was a relationship between the variables, and if so, to what extent. Beyond that, perhaps a forecaster could keep it in the back of his or her mind when looking at a spring outlook – but nothing more.

Now, it’s time to start typing…



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.