The basins remain quiet in the short term with only some tropical waves being noted for now. Some of these waves may later develop, but for now conditions remain tranquil. Over the seven day range, we are monitoring an area of low pressure off the coast of Mexico that is exprcted to develop as well as a wave in the main develop region (MDR) of the Atlantic. Let’s get into the details of these regions below!
Current Tropical Outlook
The only area of interest denoted right now is a tropical wave located in the MDR of the Atlantic Basin. While this wave is not expected to develop in the next two days, conditions are generally favorable for some gradual development over the next week and a tropical depression could form in the open Atlantic at that time. Uncertainty is still a factor with development as models as of late have been a tad aggressive. Furthermore, some models depict an elongated wave which could take more time to consolidate then a smaller more compact wave. Develop will need to be monitored as the time range for genesis moves closer.
Looking into the Pacific basin, we once again see little in the way of development in the next two days, but looking ahead we do have a chance for development over the next seven days. Over the next seven days, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and gradually develop as it moves parallel to the Mexican coastline. The reason we expect this region to develop as a result of windshear reducing over the region thus promoting storm development and eventual tropical cyclone genesis.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the extended range, both basins continue to remain hot with tropical waves passing through. In the Eastern pacific, a convectively coupled kelvin (CCK) wave will work to promote convective activity and thus increase storm develop chances. This CCK along with a reduction of wind shear should result in the development one or more storms. This trend will need to be monitored to ensure impacts aren’t felt along the Mexican coastline.
In the Atlantic basin, if development takes place, it is largely expected to recurve away from the US due to troughing currently situated over the Eastern US. The basin is warm, but subjected to high wind shear and pockets of dry Saharan air that will need to be navigated for any notable development to take place. For now, any development should result in fish storms or storms that remain out to sea.
Conclusion
Near term development isn’t expected or likely at this time, but mid to long range develop of both the Atlantic and Pacific basins looks possible. Both basins remain warm with tropical waves, if wind shear could relax across both then we may see some more development, but for now July marches on.
