Hello all and happy Sunday! For this week, we are continuing to track rain for the upcoming week with the chance of flooding.
The cause for this pattern can be attributed to many factors which we will look at, as well as how much rain you can expect into the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Firstly, we will take a look at the synoptic picture to analyze the patterns behind the anomalous rainfall expected.
Taking a look at the 850MB analysis, we can see an area of low pressure to the west of Mississippi bringing southerly flow to much of the area closer to the surface. This area of low pressure is one contributing factor as this gives us the additional lift down at the surface in order to form clouds and precipitation.
If we take a look at the precipitable water map, we can pick out two additional features that will serve as as catalysts for heavy and persistent rainfall throughout the week.
Across much of the southeast and including all of Mississippi, precipitable water values are well above 2″ and closer to 2.20″. With values higher than 2″, any large scale atmospheric forcing such as the low-pressure allows for moisture at the surface to gather effectively and form more torrential thunderstorms and downpours. In addition to this, I have also marked a frontal boundary on the map, which acts to focus the moisture in our area, giving a more focused area of moisture to work with.
Basically in a summarized sense, we have several ingredients that are working together to make this week particularly rainy, and the already wet and saturated ground does not help in terms of flooding, as the ground is less able to soak up more rain.
From the NWS, most areas west of I-55 are in a more elevated threat for flash flooding concerns under heavier showers, with areas further to the south and east under a limited threat.
In terms of temperatures, with the lingering cloud cover and rain, temperatures are likely to remain closer to 80, before an upper-level ridge looks to move at the end of the work week and into the weekend bringing things back to the upper 80s to around 90.
Down at the surface, conditions will still be humid, although less than currently, with rain chances reduced but not completely out of the picture.
Looking at the rainfall expected for the week, generally speaking ensembles are in slight disagreement with the amount of rainfall expected this week with 3-6″ being the general range. What they do agree on is that western portions of Mississippi tend to be the jackpot in terms of expected rainfall totals.
The EPS (Euro) ensemble has higher rainfall totals, especially to the west of I-55 with amounts of 6″+ not out of the question. The GEFS (American) ensemble is a bit more conservative with a wide swath of 2-3″ of rainfall expected across Mississippi. Given the amount of moisture available and the forcing available, I am leaning more towards the European ensemble, with locally higher amounts of 6″+ possible in areas that get under particularly heavy storms.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy with a 80-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Wind south at 5mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Wind light and variable.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Wind calm.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Wind light and variable.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.
