Yeah, I am. It isn’t a great one. But, hey, if there was ever a chance it might be tonight between about 9pm and midnight.
The Data
The model soundings suggest a pretty moist air mass aloft that is capable of producing snowflakes up above 15,000ft. Now, below that at about 9,000ft, it gets pretty dry, pretty quick. And a lot of the snowflakes that could be created, will likely sublimate (go from snow to water vapor, not even changing to liquid) before they reach the ground.
BUT!
There have been some bright-band returns on the radar this afternoon suggesting that some of that snow is falling through that dry layer (maybe not all the way) and it is melting a bit, too. There ahve also been reports of sleet and ice pellets to the northwest.
SO!
If some of these showers can maintain their strength, and continue to precipitate heavily enough, there is a chance that it can moisten up the atmosphere below 9,000ft allowing some of that precipitation to continue to fall.
NOW!
If that precipitation falls into the super-dry air there is a physical process in the atmosphere that actually cools the temperature down as the air becomes more moist. So even though the temperature of the dry air below about the 7,000ft mark is above freezing. If that air moistens up completely, the temperature will fall back to at-or-below 35 degrees.
AND!
If frozen precipitation falls hard enough through that 35-or-cooler degree air there is a chance that some of it makes it all the way down to the surface as snowflakes.
What are the chances?
At that point, some of the flakes would be mixed in with rain drops, but you may be able to pick out a few. And if you’re really lucky, you may end up with just regular flurries or snow crystals for a few brief minutes.
But the chance that you actually see any snow is down around – or below – 10-percent at this point. But hey, I’m telling you there’s a chance!
