A fast-moving shortwave trough is crossing the Gulf South this morning, interacting with the abundant Gulf moisture – you know what that means! Rain!
Expect a soggy go of it this morning. Rain should be tapering off this afternoon as the system moves east. Cooler air behind the front tonight will set up a mix of foggy and chilly conditions – depending on your location. With saturated ground and clearing skies, dense fog is likely overnight as temperatures drop.
The NQLBOT forecast data above is likely too warm and not foggy enough.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, all eyes are on a cutoff low currently spinning over Southern California. As it meanders eastward, this system will play a major role in our weather. Post-frontal high pressure will linger through Wednesday, but a return flow off the Gulf will bring warm, moist air back into the region.
Right now, it looks like by Thursday we will get back into a shot for more rain – and storms. most of the rain should be later in the day and into the overnight hours and through Friday morning. Severe weather can’t be ruled out, given what the CIPS Analogs are showing. But so far the Storm Prediction Center is not highlighting our area with any increased risk.
Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding could become a concern as this system, too, as it will tap into deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, with precipitable water (PWAT) values near record highs for January, according to the NWS.
Once it blows through, things should calm down for the weekend.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Cloudy. Showers this morning. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest around 5 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Cooler with lows around 50. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
