You may have caught a little bit of rai this morning, already. The light rain and showers will continue throughout the day. There may even be some heavier rain at times.
This is all before a cold front arrives tomorrow with more showers and storms. And the potential for severe weather. But that threat will be conditional, so thankfully, not everyone will see severe weather.
And the condition is if the secondary warm front can plow through the marine layer and lift northward. Historically, waiting for this to happen is always a pain in a meteorologist’s backside. These fronts are very difficult to predict. The first warm front? Easy. The second one, not so much.
Right now, most models show a secondary warm front moving ashore, but they all differ on just how far north the warm front gets. Some say I-20, others say HWY 84, and some only get it to HWY 26. But south of that warm front is going to be where the highest risk for severe weather is going to materialize.
The CIPS Analogs support the risk for severe weather when looking historically, too.
Looking at the Karrie Meter Data (sorry no maps this AM) it shows a more potent setup than the numbers were showing just 24 hours ago. But still nothing, at this time, capable of producing “Significant” severe weather or “Strong” tornadoes.
But what is worth noting is that the TOR Multiplier (still experimental, but worked well during the 2020 and 2021 tornado seasons) does show a number higher than the Karrie Meter – and thus a ratio higher than 1 – on most guidance. This has lined up many times with at least one tornado across the area.
In this particular case, it looks like the “Downdraft CAPE” is going to be the limiting factor with respect to tornado production.
Regardless of the severe weather threat, there will also be the potential for some flash flooding.
The good news is all of this moves through on Thursday and we are left with clear skies and cooler temps for the weekend.
Timeline & Threats
THURSDAY
8a-12p — Showers and storms developing, very few may be strong to severe. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
12p-4p — Showers and storms likely, some strong and a few may be severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF2 in strength)
4p-8p — Showers and storms likely, some strong and very few severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF2 in strength)
8p-12a — Showers and storms ending. Few remaining storms will be strong, very few, if any, will be severe. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Looking at the Karrie Meter Risk by hour, the peak potential looks to be around lunchtime and the few hours after.. Then things decline, from west to east, through the evening.
Day to Day Weather
Today
Cloudy with passing showers throughout the day. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the morning. The chance of rain 80-percent.
Tonight
Cloudy with rain possible overnight. Temperatures nearly steady in the mid 60s. The chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with passing showers and storms. Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. The chance of rain 90-percent.
Thursday Night
Cloudy with rain ending by midnight. Breezy. Colder. Lows around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 30.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Monday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the mid 50s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Glad you’re keeping tabs on this! So far, the ones with WDAM keep downplaying the severe risk. When you were there, we always knew the good, the bad, and, yes, the ugly too! Showing the Karrie meter was always a plus. I seriously doubt if any of the ones we have now would have a clue of knowing how to run that!