The rain is moving in and it is here to stay through the first half of the weekend – at least. For tonight, expect off-and-on tropical showers and rumbles of thunder. The rain should be a bit misty, but will still come down plenty hard at times
Tomorrow, more showers and storms will press from south-to-north across the area. Same goes for Saturday. I don’t think we have to worry about widespread flooding for most folks, but we could see some localized areas deal with some brief flash flooding – like we saw in Louisiana today. By Sunday, more showers will be possible, but they may become slightly more isolated for most of the area.
The heaviest of the rain will be closer to the coast, with shower drifting north and losing a bit of punch while they do so.
Rainfall estimates by the time the weekend is over show 3″ to 6″ of rain near the coast with 1″ to 4″ as you move northward. If you look close you can see the bullseye of 25″ of rain out over the Gulf.
By next week, we will have to see where the little area of low pressure that is causing all of this rain ends up. There is some model guidance that drops it south a bit and drags it into the middle of the Gulf by next Monday.
If you look up “sub-optimal” in the dictionary, you’ll see that model guidance in there. The last thing we want is a surface area of low pressure freely roaming the Gulf of Mexico at the peak of Hurricane Season.
Speaking of the Tropics, here is the latest from the NHC:
There are a handful of areas to watch with nowhere showing any “good” chance for development during the next seven days. Good news! But worth monitoring, for certain.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: A chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Friday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Friday Night: Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 10 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 10 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30 percent.
