We are still looking at the opportunity for showers and storms nearly every day this week. On top of that, there will be a chance for severe weather on Wednesday and again Saturday/Sunday. So a very active weather pattern as we close out 2021 and move into 2022.
It starts on Tonight and into Wednesday as the first front moves into the area. It won’t get through the area, but it will move very slowly.
A closer looks for the Southern MS/AL/LA region, shows a chance for rain that starts Tuesday (tonight) and lingers through Thursday morning.
During this time, the SPC has highlighted a risk for severe weather in the region.
Because the front that is set to move through the area is going to really slow down, it means a lingering chance for storms over a longer period of time.
And the ‘how severe’ storms will get is also a bit in question.
While the two soundings do look rather robust, the last of low-level forcing on both suggests (circled in yellow), to me, a limiting factor in the threat for any kind of widespread severe weather outbreak for the area.
What that means instead, is that any storm that can tap into any sort of low -level forcing will have a very robust atmosphere to work with. While the shear isn’t necessarily as high as storms in the area need (historically speaking) for significant severe weather, I think the amount of instability for this time of year may be able to overcome that factor.
But any threat for a significant severe storms would be very isolated. And the chance that it occurs is very, very low. But, sadly, it is not zero.
UH Sreaks
Now on to one of my favorite piece of model guidance for severe weather: UH Streaks.
The threat is even too low for the computer models to pick up on the Updraft Helicity Streaks map. Recall that this map is when we allow the computers to try and pick out where the strongest storms will be given the atmospheric parameters from each model.
The animation above if a slideshow flipping through five different models and where each model thinks the strongest storms will be. And the models shade the spots with the strongest storms in grey, blue, yellow and red.
And in this case, most of the strongest storms are either north of the area, south of the area, or non-existent.
CIPS Analogs
Even CIPS is underwhelmed with this first event.
Looking at the analog chart, it shows a lot of ‘almost good enough to use’ analogs. When looking at these cIPS analogs, it is always important to have a ‘Score’ higher than 11 to really consider a date a good analog. And the higher the score, the better the analog.
In this case, we have a bunch of 10s. Which in pre-2012 Olympic Gymnastics is great! But in Analogs, is not.
As I mentioned above, this may be a bit of a boom or bust forecast, where if an individual storm can latch onto some low-evel forcing, it will have the best chance to turn severe.
And it looks like the analogs also support that kind of forecast. Where there are many busts with no severe weahter, there are a few booms with widespread severe weather.
The most recent analog above would be in 2016 when a similar setup produce a fair bit of severe weather across the general region. But most of it was well west of I-55 and north of I-20.
Bottom Line
There is the potential for severe weather during the next three days. Today, tomorrow and Thursday. But this doesn’t look to be a knock-down-drag-out kind of event. It looks to be pretty low-end with a higher ceiling.
That means that most storms won’t be severe. And even the storms that are severe will be mainly heavy rain, gusty wind, small hail, and wind gusts up to 60mph. And that kind of storms could develop at any time between today and Thursday.
The “higher ceiling” is for the individual storms that can tap into any low-level forcing at all, the atmosphere from about 2500ft and up is capable of producing and maintaining storms with larger hail and the ability to produce up to an EF2 tornado.
The chances that a storm like that develops though, are pretty low during the next few days.
As we look ahead to the weekend, there will be another shot for more storms and more severe weather. But I will wait to update everyone on that for a later time.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a ffew showers or storms possible. Highs in the upper 70s. Breezy. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible overnight. Temperatures nearly steady in the upper 60s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Wednesday
Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe. Highs around 80. Breezy. South winds 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Some may be severe. Lows in the upper 60s. The chance of rain 50-percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a few storms possible. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with a few showers or storms possible. Highs in the upper 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 70.
New Years Day
Mostly cloudy with passing showers and storms possible. Highs in the upper 70s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Saturday Night
Showers and storms likely overnight. Some storms may be severe. Cold front passes through overnight, leaving area cooler by morning. Lows in the upper 50s. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Sunday
Clearing skies. Cooler. Highs in the lower 60s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the lower 30s.
Monday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the lower 50s.
