Southwest Mississippi can expect heat indices around 95F today with possible evening pop-up thunderstorms, none of which are expected to be severe. This pattern can be extrapolated out through the weekend, but a shift is coming as the Texas ridge of high pressure intensifies and expands eastward.
Heat indices will peak in the mid-90s near 4:00pm CDT before clouds and storms take over and quickly cool down the region. These storms will not be widespread but their precipitation will be locally heavy creating pockets of flooded communities across southern Mississippi. Combining this risk with the already saturated soil, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a slight risk (2-out-of-4) risk for excessive rainfall.
There appears to be a warm-up ahead starting in the middle of next week. This expectation derives from a forecasted expansion of the central US ridge of high pressure. Once this system migrates eastward to be over Texas and expands, Mississippi will see more stable weather and weak, surface winds coming from the Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday, afternoon heat indices could peak from 100F-to-105F, possibly prompting the issuance of heat advisories in the region. At 5-to-10 degrees warmer, the future looks sizzling for some afternoons next week.
Precipitation will also be more scattered and less frequent which is reflected in the 7-day accumulation map. The 7-day rainfall totals in the region should be anywhere from .5″-to-1″ with locally heavy accumulations near 2″.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Thursday
Mostly cloudy skies with an 80-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures in the mid-80s are likely with heat indices hovering near 95F; overnight lows in the low-70s are expected.
Friday
Mostly sunny skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures in the upper-80s are likely with heat indices in the upper-90s; overnight lows in the low-70s are expected.
Saturday
Mostly sunny skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures near 90F are likely with heat indices in the upper-90s; overnight lows in the low-70s are expected.
Sunday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures near 90F are likely with heat indices in the mid-90s; overnight lows in the low-70s are expected.
Monday
Partly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures in the upper-80s are likely with heat indices in the mid-90s; overnight lows in the low-70s are expected.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures near 90F are likely with heat indices in the mid-90s; overnight lows in the mid-70s are expected.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. High temperatures in the low-90s are likely with heat indices approaching 100F; overnight lows in the mid-70s are expected.
