Hello everyone and happy Tuesday! Today we will be discussing the forecast for southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama and the potential for more notable rainfall. The enhanced risk comes from a descending frontal boundary that has a low but still present chance of a low formation just off the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi throughout this week.
Currently, the NHC is monitoring this possible disturbance, and as of writing this post has given the system a 30-percent chance of development within 5-days.
While the chance of formation is quite low, we will see as we move throughout the week that the system will bring a significant amount of rainfall to the area, with the totals higher as you move closer to the coastline.
Starting with today, we should see temperatures in the 90s further north with slightly cooler conditions further south with the onshore wind present as well as a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon limiting the high temperature for the day.
Heat indices will peak around 101F for the day today. This is lower than the week prior where the region consistently saw heat indices above 105F for prolonged periods of time. While it will still be hot, it will be cooler and thus the NWS has dropped all of the heat advisories and warnings for the region.
Once again the threat for hotter heat indices will be felt the further north and west you travel thanks to a cool down from shower activity further to the southeast.
The rest of the week should feature temperatures either side of 90F, which is about average or slightly below average for this time of year. It will still be humid, as it usually is with dew points in the 70s, however the lower day-time high temperatures will support a lower heat index to remain below the advisory threshold from the NWS.
The precipitation forecast is the next big topic and as I started to mention above, it looks like a gulf disturbance will increase our chances to see higher precipitation amounts over the next week.
Due to the presence of two subtropical ridges to the west and east of our area, the system is likely to linger over the Gulf area over the next couple of days as the two ridges will block any movement of the system.
Looking at the 500MB anomaly map, the gulf disturbance is marked with a red “L” just over Louisiana while the two subtropical high’s are marked with blue “H’s”.
Moving towards the potential for precipitation over the next week, the WPC 7-day forecast shows the potential for areas along the coast to see upwards of 5″+ of precipitation, with southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama looking at the potential for localized amounts of closer to 10″ of precipitation. This is certainty something that will have to be monitored as this could lead to flooding issues if further uptick continues.
In terms of tracking the highest chances throughout the week, this seems to come on Wednesday into Thursday, where the probability of seeing greater than 0.25″ over a 6-hour period remains the highest.
What these two maps basically indicate is that from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening, this is where the highest chance to see the heaviest precipitation lies, as the probability of exceeding 0.25″ over a 6 hour period is close to 50-percent Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon.
While some tweaks are likely to come about as the NHC continues to monitor the potential for a system to form in the Gulf, the current threats are limited to the potential for flooding, as increased moisture from the system will lead to enhanced convective rainfall totals over the week. The threat for flooding is also higher the further south you travel closer to the coast, as further north the 7-day rainfall totals start to drop off as you head closer to I-20.
As always, it is important to continue to monitor future forecasts, as if the system shows more signs of development, that could bring up the rainfall totals!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with better chances to the south of I-20. Highs in the low-90s with heat indices near 101F. Wind northeast at 5mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s. Wind calm.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid-80s. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph with gusts up to 30mph. Chance of rain 70-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s. Wind southeast at 5-to-10mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper-80s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s. Wind calm.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper-80s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s. Wind east at 5mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper-80s to around 90. Wind east at 5mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s. Wind east at 5mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-80s.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s.
Monday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper-80s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low-70s.
