Today will be quite the breezy day again. Plus we have another shot for showers and storms – some could be severe – with brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gust sup to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the chance for a few brief tornadoes.
We already have a Tornado Watch in effect to the north.
The STorm Prediction Center is holding the risk for severe weather at a Slight Risk for most of our area. That is a “2” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
I know a lot of folks have asked, “how bad will it be?” and “will it be like last time?”
And I can’t really answer that because “bad” is a pretty subjective descriptor. A “bad” storm to you may not be a “bad” storm to me. And I also don’t like comparing events to eachother because often there are different ingredients that go into an event, so they are touh to do an apples-to-apples comparison against each other.
But I will say this: The risk for strong tornadoes in our area is quite a bit lower, statistically, than the last system that swung through. And the highest anticipated wind speed is also lower. And the threat for big hail is also lower
So you may say, “okay, good, it won’t be as bad as last time!”
But if you didn’t get the worst of the storms last time and it wasn’t very eventful, but this time you do get the worst of the storms, then this time will be worse than last time. And that is why I try not to make those comparisons when offering a forecast.
The other bit of good news is that this should be a reasonably quick hitter. Storms beginning this morning and ending shortly after lunch.
Once this kicks through, things should calm down as we move through the evening and into the overnight hours. That should leave us with a pretty nice weekend.
And then next week things get interesting with the potential for some cold and precipitation to arrive and similar times. We will have to see how things shake out with this. I tend to think it may be more of a sleet event than a snow or freezing rain event, but we still have a lot to get through before we start sticking a flag int eh sand and making any real predictions.
REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms – mainly before 2p. Windy with highs in the lower 70s. Temperature falling into the lower 60s in the afternoon. South winds 20 to 30 mph, becoming west 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Much cooler with lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Saturday: Sunny. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds around 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. A slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Cold with lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Colder with lows 15 to 20.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Not as cold with lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the upper 50s.
