It looks like the threat for severe weather late tonight and into tomorrow morning is still on the docket. As a front kicks through the area tomorrow morning it will spark off showers and storms – some severe. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the area with a Slight Risk for severe weather.
There is an outside shot they increase it to an Enhanced Risk, but I think if they did it would be closer to the coast and farther east.
The threat for severe weather shifts east tomorrow.
While writing this post, the SPC updated the Risk to include an Enhanced Risk close to the coast near Mobile, Alabama.
The timeline for storms should run from about 10p tonight through 10a tomorrow – depending on location. The farther west you live the earlier storms will begin and the earlier they will end. The opposite is true if you live farther east.
The main concern with storms will be heavy rain, frequent lightning (like, a lot of lightning), gusty wind and hail up to the size of half dollars. There is a non-zero risk for tornadoes but that will take some extra juice from the atmosphere (more on that later).
The CIPS Analogs show that all 15 analogs could all be “good” analogs for the upcoming event. And all of them have very different outcomes. Some have no severe weather while others have severe weather outbreaks.
The Updraft Helicity Streaks map shows a handful of streaks across the region. Recall that these streaks are when we allow the computer to find where it thinks the strongest storms will travel given the atmospheric parameters in place. The streaks are storm tracks from rotating storms. A storm that rotates tends to be more organized and has the ability to produce stronger wind, bigger hail, and even tornadoes.
This animation is cycling through the handful of models that allow us to calculate the Updraft Helicity.
It is important to note that a vast majority of those streaks are in areas where storms will not be surface-based. And storms that are not surface-based have a very difficult time producing tornadoes.
For most spots north of Highway 84, your atmosphere is going to look like this:
This is an atmosphere that is more likely to produce hail and gusty wind than tornadoes. Things will spin like crazy in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but because storms are more likely to be elevated and not surface-based, the storms can’t translate that spinning down to the surface.
For places south of Highway 84, and truly for places along and south of Highway 98, your amtosphere is going to look like this:
Storms that develop in this environment are more likely to be surface-based. These storms will also feature heavy rain, frequent lightning (tons!), wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of half-dollars, and the potential to produce tornadoes. And tornadoes would be up to EF-3 in strength given this setup, too.
The timeline for a risk for strong tornadoes is between 3a and 9a tomorrow morning.
Given all of this, the Karrie Meter shows a number in the 5s which is between a Slight and Enhanced Risk from the SPC. The Tornado Potential is going to be dictated by the surface-based-ness of the storms, so the number offered this time isn’t as meaningful for everyone. Because the number will be higher the closer you get to the Gulf Coast.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the mid 70s.
Tonight
Showers and storms possible, mainly after midnight. Some storms may be severe. Lows around 60. Chance for rain 60-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe. Breezy. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80-percent.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Cooler. Less humid with lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday
Sunny, cooler with highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday Night
Mostly sunny with highs around 70.
Sunday
Mostly clear. Lows around 40.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the upper 50s.
Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 70-percent.
Tuesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 80-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
