Extreme weather continues to ravage the United States throughout this summer. From catastrophic flooding in Missouri and Kentucky, to scorching heat in the central part of the US, and intense wildfires throughout the western US, the weather has been very impactful to many people throughout the country over the span of a couple months. Many of the same threats experienced in the past will continue to impact people for the upcoming days ahead.
Northern Plains
Up in the northern US, severe thunderstorms will be possible for today, mainly for northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This potential for severe thunderstorms can be broken down into two waves of sorts. Firstly, isolated thunderstorms may form in portions of eastern Minnesota, due to the presence of warm air advection (the moving of warm air into an area) interacting with the moisture in place, and move into western Wisconsin.
The biggest question with this first round is if storms are going to be able to get themselves going. Strong capping will be in place throughout much of the morning and early afternoon that could keep development isolated, if not completely suppressed entirely. If storms are able to form, they look to remain elevated (i.e. not ingesting unstable air from the surface) throughout their life. Nevertheless, an unstable atmosphere and modest wind shear will maintain a marginally severe threat, with the main hazards being hail and damaging wind gusts.
The second round looks to get underway by Tuesday late afternoon and evening. An approaching shortwave trough traversing its way through southern Canada and associated surface low will begin to move into the area and be the main cause for storm development early on in the evening. Also associated with the surface low is a cold front extending to the south into Nebraska and a warm front that will lift through Minnesota and Wisconsin by the evening hours. Initial development is expected near the surface low in North Dakota and will travel eastward throughout the evening and overnight hours. Additional development may be possible along the warm front in central Minnesota and Wisconsin may also be possible, but coverage of storms is uncertain.
Nonetheless, any storms that do form are going to be capable of large hail and damaging winds, due to strong wind shear and DCAPE (Downward Convective Available Potential Energy; a measure of how much energy is available to descending air).
These storms should exit the region by Wednesday afternoon, more calm weather will set in all the way through to the weekend before rain chances increase again by the weekend.
Four Corners
Over in the desert Southwest, monsoon rains are still in full swing throughout the region. This rain has been relief for some, especially those impacted by wildfires, but it has been a little too good at its job. Several places that have become saturated with water, or were impacted by wildfires, have been dealing with flash flooding risks for days and will continue to do so over the coming days. The monsoon pattern does not look to relent any over the course of the week. Although not everyone will see heavy rainfall and high rainfall totals, totals may amount up to 3 to 4 inches in areas over the course of the next seven days.
Central Plains
Back in the central US, the heat will continue to be the main story for many this week. Beginning in the Dakotas and Nebraska, temperatures mainly look to be an issue over the next three to four days. Highs in the upper 90s to possibly low 100s, with heat indices approaching 105°F will continue to exacerbate drought conditions and cause health concerns in the area. Relief will arrive by the end of the week and into the weekend when a cold front comes through from the north, which will help bring some rainfall and temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with it.
Further south through the Southern Plains and Mississippi River Valley, the heat will linger on longer, all the way for the next 7 days. Several days of temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s will continue to plague the region. Unlike up north, the cold front does not look to budge much past Kansas and Missouri, leaving the majority of those south of those states to roast over this week.
