So far, model guidance continues to show a cold front trying to push south through the region on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. While the threat for severe weather persists north of I-20, it looks like once you get closer to the Gulf of Mexico that threat should diminish – though not completely.
Of equal importance, as we head through the next week, the weather pattern is going to flip to become very “late Spring / early Summer” like. It won’t be necessarily all that warm, but the overall setup will allow for a few passing clusters of storms that will be more disorganized in nature.
This may lead to a low-end severe threat each day through Saturday morning. As well as the potential for localized flash flooding.
This week’s setup
There were will a parade of storm systems, as usual. The difference will be that these system will all push by a bit farther north than usual for this time of the year.
This will mean fewer intruding cold fronts into the southeast. After the first one shows up on Wednesday, it doesn’t look like another True Blue front will show up during the next five to seven days. It will come close, but won’t quite make it.
That will leave the weather pattern slightly more unsettled since things will be going as a ‘slow burn’ instead of a one-two-three punch. It will also mean a, generally, lower risk for severe weather.
This is highlighted by the SPC outlooks for Wednesday and Thursday.
Both days feature a Marginal Risk, a “1” out of “5” on the 1-to-5 scale where a “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
And, while not highlighted by the SPC yet, I expect a Marginal Risk to persist on Friday, too.
Timeline & Threats
Wednesday
Any shower activity on Wednesday will be storms lifting north from the Gulf of MExico ahead of the cold front that is set to arrive late Wednesday night through the region. As of now, severe weather is unlikely to occur before 10pm on Wednesday if you live south of I-20.
The specific timeline may speed up a bit as we get closer, so keep tabs on the forecast. For now, it looks like an overnight even with heavy rain, gusty wind, and the potential for a brief tornado or two. A lot like the ones we had last week, these would be brief and weak, if at all.
Thursday
Morning shorts and storms move out of the area. A few showers and storms may persist into the afternoon as the cold front hangs up close to the coast. Severe weather is unlikely in this timeframe, however very heavy rain and frequent lightning with any storm that develops will be possible.
Overnight Thursday and into Friday, it looks like a little cluster of storms will push through the region. Another round of heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind will be possible. The tornado threat looks pretty low.
Friday
Almost a repeat performance of Thursday. Lingering morning showers and storms and then another round in the afternoon. Then another round of storms push through overnight and into Saturday morning.
The potential for severe weather exists, but it will be rather low. Storms will pack heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty wind. Given the disorganized nature, tornadoes aren’t much of a concern.
Saturday
Lingering showers from the night before should clear out as we move through the day. But it won’t be “cool” back in behind the rain. Just warm and humid, still. Should leave us with a mild and muggy afternoon
The Bottom Line
We are looking at a few chances for rain each day Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and into Saturday morning. While severe weather is a concern, it isn’t a “major” concern. These storms will likely feel very summer-like with some very heavy rain, a whole mess of lightning, and some pretty gusty wind.
The tornado threat will be, generally, on the low end of the scale. Wednesday looks to be the best day to see tornadoes in the region, and even that will be tough to do.
It is also possible that localized flash flooding will be a problem since there will be a parade of storms moving through. So if you live in a place that floods easily, make sure to keep an eye on the water as we move through the week.
