As the clouds clear and the daytime heating commences across the southern plains, the threat for severe weather is intensifying.
And so is the wind.
Gusts to 45 mph are being felt across parts of the Texas panhandle this morning as the dryline sharpens across the area. And as that develops into the afternoon we are watching for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it.
Clouds associated with lead upr impulse should clear region along lee trough/dry line segments over wrn parts of the cntrl and srn plns by early aftn…Allowing for substantial heating. At the same time…Boundary layer moisture should continue to slowly increase through advection. Sfc dewpoints should average in the upr 50s to around 60 over w tx…With somewhat lwr values extending nwd into wrn ks. Coupled with steep mid-lvl lapse rates…Expect mucape to range from 1000 j/kg in ks to 2000 j/kg in tx.
Sfc heating and height falls associated with progressive nature of large-scale trough should foster sctd storm development along lee trough/dry line segments beginning late this aftn and continuing into tngt from wrn ks to w cntrl tx. More wdly sctd activity may extend s to the tx big bend. Coupled with 40-45 kt wswly deep shear and steep mid-lvl lapse rates…Environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail…Some possibly very large…And locally dmgg wind. A risk for tornadoes also may develop…Particularly this eve/early tngt over nw tx/sw ok…As nocturnal and dynamic strengthening of sly llj enlarges hodographs. This window of opportunity should diminish later tngt as the storms merge into short line/clusters…Although a limited risk for svr wind/hail may persist near the red rvr through early thu.
Here is a look at the areas that we are watching fo severe weather and tornadic development:
As the Storm Prediction Center indicates, large hail is really the main concern today. Damaging straight-line winds are also going to be a problem as the downdrafts with the cells that do develop could be rather strong.
The tornado risk, according to the SPC and as we mentioned previously, will likely be highest right at or shortly after sunset.
Please have a NOAA Weather Radio handy and an app on your smartphone, too.
