County by county breakdown of the severe weather threat from Nick here.
As Nick has stated in his blog, this isn’t the worst of the worst, but the threat for high winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes is still there. I’ll give you a visual breakdown of what’s possible today.
The blob Nick mentioned is a factor in where the storms are developing across the I-55 corridor in the morning. Areas west of New Orleans and around McComb to Jackson will see the first round of storms. A few of these look to be severe with a tornado possible. These will move southwest to northeast and dissipate slightly in the early afternoon. Afterwards, a string of storms will move across the southwestern Mississippi/Louisiana border.
The main threat for the Pinebelt and southeastern Louisiana looks to be around 2-6 pm with some discrete cells developing near the southern Pearl River and moving northeast. If you look closely you can see the signature “hook” look that many tornadic supercells have, so I wouldn’t be surprised if these do. The warm front will then move north and east carrying the cells into parts of east central Mississippi and western Alabama.
More scattered cells will be possible as the evening progresses. The potency of the cold front’s system looks to cut back as it crosses the Mississippi River but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet. There are storms ahead of the system that could develop into supercells with possible tornadoes. The cold front moves in around 8 and remains until midnight with wind gusts up to 55mph, flash flooding, and some hail possible. This will keep going until it moves out after midnight.
Timeline and thoughts
11-2pm – areas around the I-55 corridor will see the first round of storms with a few supercells possible. Hail, wind gusts, and tornadoes possible.
3-7pm – severe threat shifts east towards the I-59 to Hwy 98 corridor. Supercells possible with some becoming tornadic as they move further northeast. Hail and straight line winds are likely. These will move north towards east central Mississippi and western Alabama as the evening progresses.
8-Midnight – Cold front moves in with more cells ahead of the front possibly turning into supercells. A few tornadoes may be possible and wind gusts and heavy rain are likely with the main front.
Overall, this is definitely not a widespread outbreak kind of day, but it is a day to keep an eye out for any severe warnings and especially tornado warnings as they can develop quickly and cause considerable damage.
Sunday and Monday
Sunday is a brief reprieve from the sticky past couple of days we’ve had, but it won’t last very long. Some west northwest winds will move in during the day keeping us slightly cooler, however highs will be in the mid to upper 60s with a few clouds in the sky. Overnight, the winds begin to calm down and the temperature falls into the mid 40s.
Going into Monday, the wind will shift towards the south signifying another system moving our way. This doesn’t look to be near as impressive as hardly anything moves south of north Mississippi in terms of rain. It’ll be a warmer and gusty day for sure, but nothing bad. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s before the front moves in on Tuesday.
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Today – Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. High in the mid 70s. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tonight – Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low in the mid 50s. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 60s. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Calm wind.
Monday – Sunny, with a high near 70. Light southwest wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low in the low to mid 50s. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday – Sunny, with a high in the mid 60s. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 30s. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
New Year’s Day – Sunny, with a high in the mid to upper 50s. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the mid 30s.
Thursday – Sunny, with a high in the mid 50s.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the low 30s.
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 50s.
