Showers and storms will be possible again today. Severe weather isn’t anticipated, though it can’t be completely ruled out, I suppose.
The Storm Prediction Center shows a 40-percent chance that thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe close to the Mississippi and Alabama coast, too. But again, the overall threat is low and widespread severe weather is not anticipated. As a warm front moves through this afternoon, there will be some instability, but a pretty stout inversion, meaning no surface-based storms. And that should really limit the threat for severe weather. The timeline for these storms is between about 11a and 6p.
Then, overnight the cold front moves through. This should slide through after midnight. But it doesn’t look like there will be enough time to pool enough warm air at the surface to create a very viable severe weather scenario for most of the area… so more rain and thunder it is!
The only caveat I will offer is that closer to the Gulf Coast and points farther east into Alabama there will be a chance for a few low-end severe storms with the potential for brief and weak tornadoes or small hail.
Looking at the sounding data there may be just enough low-level instability, forcing, spin and shear to squeeze out a severe storm or tornado. That said, there is still some question about whether or not there will be enough warmth at the surface for storms to be surface-based.
If so, there is the potential for a brief tornado. If not, no tornadoes. But it is really close.
Then things calm down a bit for Wednesday and Thursday as the main axis for storms shifts to the east slightly.
More rain is in the forecast for Friday, though, as the next cold front kicks through.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy and cooler with highs in the lower 60s. Showers and storms are likely this afternoon and evening. Chance of rain 80-percent.
Tonight
Cloudy with showers and storms possible after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s by early Wed AM. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs around 70.
Thursday Night
Increasing clouds with a few showers possible. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 20-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Severe weather can’t be ruled out. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with lingering showers possible before midnight. Cooler. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Saturday
Sunny. Much cooler with highs around 50.
Saturday Night
Clear, cold with lows around 30.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Monday
Partly sunny. Highs around 70.
