Dry air over the Gulf Coast will give way as a ridge builds eastward, bringing an increase in Gulf moisture. A strong weather system will swing from the Desert Southwest into the Midwest, drawing a cold front toward the area during the next few days. As this system approaches, a rise in humidity will push dew points up with temperatures 5-10°F above normal.
These factors create potential for isolated severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area with a Marginal Risk for severe weather.
Heavy rain could bring localized flooding, though widespread issues aren’t expected. The NQLBOT assisted data suggests the severe risk in the afternoon may be closer to I-55.
Rain and storms will move out by midnight Wednesday into Thursday, with dry and cooler conditions taking hold late week, bringing highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue into the weekend as high pressure dominates. By Sunday, a warm-up begins with highs back near 75 to 80. There’s also a high chance of tropical development in the Caribbean, though impacts to the Gulf Coast are not anticipated. Shower chances will remain low, with isolated activity possible late Sunday into Monday.
This week offers a mix of calm days and potentially stormy midweek conditions, with an overall warm trend extending into early next week.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: A chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the mid 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Much cooler with lows in the lower 50s.
Friday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
