Honestly, we are lucky it has been so cool recently and that the airmass int he Gulf has been shoved so far south and east. Because this next system would be a doozy if afternoon highs were in the mid low 70s right now as opposed to the mid 60s.
Seriously, while Thanksgiving will be a bit soggy and stormy, it would be much worse. So I am really happy it has been so chilly and the upper-level pattern has kicked the subtropical airmass to the south.
So what is happening?
Well! We get a warm front that passes through on Turkey Day. This will mean showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon. If you’ve got the family Turkey Bowl football game, you may want to plan in for the morning if you want to stay dry. If the kids want to get muddy, an afternoon kickoff would be better.
That said! There will be a few storms moving across the area with the warm front. Most (likely all) of these should be elevated and not surface-based. That will limit the threat for tornadoes and cloud-to-ground lightning, but the threat won’t be zero. So if you do have kids playing in an afternoon football game, make sure they pay attention to the weather. When they hear thunder, the game should go to halftime (it won’t, I know kids, but parents maybe check on them and make sure they’re okay).
Then on Black Friday the “party” starts. For you weather enthusiasts, take a look at the maps below. On any other day, these would scream “severe weather” but in this case they don’t.
According to model guidance, it turns out, we are going to be just a hair too cool at the surface. But not by much.
We are still looking at warmer-than-normal temperatures, but not warm enough given how warm things will be aloft. That is some really good news. Because the Skew-T (below) shows a fairly bouyant atmosphere aloft, some good turning with height and an overall favorable setup for severe weather.
But it isn’t quite warm enough at the surface to make any storms surface-based.
Could this change? Yes. Will this change? Probably a little. Will this change to include the potential for more severe weather? I’m not completely certain.
See, there isn’t a cold front moving through to spark off showers and storms. We have a warm front kick through and then little boundaries ,with clusters and lines of storms developing along those boundaries, that move through. If one of these boundaries is lightly cooler behind it or slightly warmer ahead of it, then we could see a boost to the threat for severe weather.
Or! If this area of low pressure decides to move out of the area quicker, that may also increase the risk for severe weather.
So there are still a lot of moving parts. And not to alarm anyone, but one of the past analogous events shown on the CIPS Analogs data was the day of the Columbia tornado in 2014. So, again, the threat for severe weather isn’t zero. But we will be riding a very thin line. Recall that a few days before the Columbia torando we were also saying a similar thing, “its really close, and could go either way”
So, please keep tabs on the forecast in the coming 48 hours.
By Sunday, though, this all moves out and we start to dry things out a bit as we close out November.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the mid 40s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Thanksgiving Day
Mostly cloudy with storms possible. Some storms may be strong. Severe weather still looks less likely. Brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty wind will be the main concern with the strongest storms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday Night
Cloudy with lingering showers and storms overnight. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Some storms may be strong. Severe weather still looks less likely. Brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty wind will be the main concern with the strongest storms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with rain clearing out. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday
Partly sunny with some showers possible. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a few showers possible. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
