A warm front will slide through the area today ushering in warmer and humider (definitely not a word) air. In fact, dew points will jump from the upper teens and low 20s just two days ago into the 60s by tomorrow. So it will feel a bit more like South Mississippi this week. Plus we may have a few of our first 80-degree temperature readings of the year, too.
Oh and there is a chance for storms and the potential for some low-end severe weather.
I can see all my Winter Lovers right now:
Sorry! There is a chance for some cooler air by the weekend, but we have to get through a humid week first.
And first things first, the threat for storms today.
Mainly a Marginal Risk across the Southern MS/AL/LA region with a Slight Risk to the northwest. And, as a reminder, the Marginal Risk is a “1” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather. A Slight Risk is a “2” on the same scale.
These ratings are similar to last week’s ratings for much of the area.
But the setup is a bit different. And certainly not as impressive.
Today storms may struggle to develop as surface-based storms. The Effective Inflow Layer is elevated through midday. And it doesn’t actually settle to the surface until after sundown. While the Surface-to-1km helicity is reasonable and the shear decent, with the EIL not on the surface and the DCAPE is under 600, it should reduce the tornado threat.
That may not be the case tomorrow.
Tomorrow, the EIL is surface based and the DCAPE is greater than 600, but the Surface-to-1km helicity is slightly lower and the Shear isn’t quite and impressive. And, probably most importantly, there isn’t as much forcing tomorrow in the low-levels.
So, neither day is a ‘slam dunk’ for severe weather. Today looks like more of a “Brief heavy rain and wind” kind of day, unless a rogue storm can get surface-based. And tomorrow looks like a another heavy rain and wind day with a “you can’t rule out a very brief spin-up tornado” added to it..
And that is supported by the Karrie Meter.
Keep an eye to the sky both days, and if a warning is issued for your area, stay indoors for a bit while the storm passes.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and storms. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Tonight
Cloudy with a few showers overnight, warmer. Lows in the mid 60s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Breezy. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a few storms possible overnight. Lows in the mid 60s.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance for rain is around 40-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a 20-percent chance for showers and storms. Highs in the lower 80s.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with storms possible overnight. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance for rain around 40-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Cooler. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance for rain around 40-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.
